Besag-Newell法在探测新疆涂阳结核病空间聚集性中的应用  

Application of the Besag-Newell method on detection of spatial clustering of sputum smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang

作　　者：王微[1] 靳圆圆[1] 闫慈[1] 曹明芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2016年第8期1349-1354,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：新疆医科大学卫生计量与卫生经济学支撑学科(XYDXK5070308);新疆研究生科研创新项目(XJGRI2015081)

摘　　要：目的以2007-2010年新疆涂阳结核病数据为例,探索性分析新疆结核病涂阳病例的空间聚集性特征。方法应用Moran’sⅠ法与Besag-Newell法对新疆2007-2010年涂阳结核病数据进行空间聚集性分析,绘制专题地图。结果 Moran’sⅠ法和Besag-Newell法均提示新疆结核病涂阳病例存在地区聚集性。Besag-Newell法对于参数m值的设定的依赖性较高,不同的m值,探测新疆涂阳结核地区聚集性存在差异。Besag-Newell法不仅可以探测整个地理区域的聚集性,而且可对局部存在空间聚集区域以及聚集强度进行探测。结论 Moran’sⅠ法与Besag-Newell法探测新疆结核病涂阳病例的空间聚集性分析有助于了解新疆结核病的流行蔓延趋势,为相关部门制定决策提供依据。Objective The study analyzed the data of sputum smear- positive tuberculosis cases in Xinjiang,aiming to explore the characteristics of spatial clustering of smear- positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang. Methods The Moran＇s Ⅰ method and Besag- Newell method were used to analyze and illustrate the spatial clustering of sputum smear- positive tuberculosis reported in Xinjiang between 2007 and 2010. Results The Moran＇s Ⅰ and Besag- Newell methods both suggested that sputum smear-positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang had regional clustering features. As Besag- Newell is strongly dependent on the value of parameter m,differences in regional clustering of the cases were observed under different m values. Besag- Newell can determine not only clusterings at an entire geographical region or partial regions but also the intensities of clusterings.Conclusion The Moran＇s Ⅰ and Besag- Newell methods are useful for analysis of the spatial clustering of smear- positive tuberculosis in Xinjiang and determination of the epidemic trends of tuberculosis,thus providing references for policy making at the relevant agencies.

关 键 词：结核病 Besag-Newell Moran’s Ⅰ 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]