不确定条件下用于多方案比选的变权-SIR方法  

Multiple schemes selection based on dynamic weight SIR under uncertainty

作　　者：桑惠云[1] 谢新连[1] 刘翠莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学综合运输研究所,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2016年第5期1093-1099,共7页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132013320);辽宁省社会科学规划基金(L14AGL003);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20102125110002)资助课题

摘　　要：针对评价信息存在模糊性、不确定性及不完备性的多方案比选问题,考虑短板指标对各方案综合评价值的影响,引入置信度的概念和变权原理,提出一种新的不确定条件下的变权-优劣势排序(dynamic-weight superiority and inferiority ranking under uncertainty,DWUSIR)方法。利用带置信度结构的语言评价值表达评价信息的不完备性或专家评价的不确定性和模糊性;基于变权原理,通过状态变权函数构造变权模型,兼顾决策者的主观偏好与目标状态值的影响。最后,通过算例分析验证了新提出的方法的有效性和合理性。For the multiple schemes selection issue with imprecise, uncertainty and uncompleteness, with a view to the effect of short-board attributes in the decision making, therefore a novel dynamic-weight superiority and inferiority ranking under uncertainty（DWUSIR） approach is developed by using the concept of degrees of belief and the dynamic-weight theory. The linguistics terms with degrees of belief are introduced to present the incompletemess, uncertain data as well as the insufficient expertise. Based on the dynamic weight theory, the dynamic weight model is constrcted by the state variable weight function. The variable weights are determined by preset weights and state values of the attributes. A case study is used to illustrate the validity and the feasi- bility of the novel framework.

关 键 词：多属性决策 不确定性 母型船优选 动态权重 优劣势排序 

分 类 号：U662[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] C934[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]