地面报中高山站资料的应用分析  

Application and Analysis on the Mountain Observatory of Surface Observational Data

作　　者：郝民[1] 龚建东[1] 徐枝芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2016年第4期424-435,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106008);国家自然科学基金项目(41275105和41375107)共同资助

摘　　要：无线电探空仪观测和地面观测资料作为天气分析和数值预报最常用、最重要的两种资料数据源,两者时空分辨率有着明显的差异。如何利用地面观测资料的高时空分辨率特点来补充探空观测资料在一些地区的欠缺和不足,特别是地面高山站资料的使用对对流层底层环流场的影响及对精细化数值天气预报风场分析指示意义等都需要进一步的探究。文章通过对地面高山站资料在资料同化中不同的使用方式的分析,探索其作为探空资料的补充在资料同化中的贡献。个例试验选取2013年6月29日00时地面资料和探空观测资料进行资料同化,试验方法:分别将地面高山站资料作为探空资料和地面资料应用于同化分析中,结果表明:地面高山站资料当探空资料使用时对850和925 hPa风场同化分析有正效果。在地面高山站资料当探空资料使用和当地面资料使用的对比中,其24 h 850和700 hPa高度和风场预报试验差异不显著;但24 h降水预报结果显示:地面高山站资料当探空资料使用对降水强度和位置的预报都有弱的正贡献。连续试验的降水预报检验证明:在地面高山站较多的西南区,高山站资料当探空资料使用在小雨、中雨、暴雨等量级的预报评分要优于高山站资料当地面报使用,且其预报偏差也较小;在中国区降水预报检验高山站资料当探空资料和地面报使用差异不大。Radiosonde observations and surface observations,which are obviously different in spatio-temporal resolutions,serve as the most commonly used and vital data sources in weather analysis and numerical prediction.Further studies are required on how to use the surface observation data with high spatio-temporal resolution to supplement deficiencies and shortages in radiosonde observations in some areas;especially on the effect of using mountain station data on the circulation of low-level troposphere and on the indicative significance to the refinement of wind field analysis of numerical weather forecast.By analyzing various methods used in data assimilation of mountain station observations,this paper investigates the contribution of the supplementary data of radiosonde observation to the data assimilation.As a test case,the surface data and radiosonde observation at 00 UTC 29 June 2013 are adopted for data assimilation,which takes the surface observations of mountain station as radiosonde data and surface data in assimilation analysis.The results indicate that when the surface observation of mountain stations is used as radiosonde data,they have positive effects on the 850 hPa and 925 hPa wind data assimilation analysis.The comparison of using the surface observation as radiosonde data and as surface data shows no apparent difference in 24 h forecasting test on the height and wind fields at 850 hPa and 700 hPa levels.However,the 24 h precipitation forecast results show a weak positive contribution to rainfall intensity and location prediction when using the surface observation of mountain stations as radiosonde data.Continuous precipitation forecast tests prove that in the southwest areas where more mountain stations are located,the precipitation forecasting scores for light rain,moderate rain and heavy rain with station observations used as radiosonde data are better than those with station observations as surface data,and their forecast bias are also smaller.But in the other areas of China,no obvious difference is

关 键 词：地面高山站资料 探空资料 GRAPES 同化试验 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]