基于单项预测模型筛选的隧道变形优选组合预测  

Study of Combination Forecast of Tunnel Deformation Based on the Single Forecasting Model Selection and Optimization

作　　者：刘绍堂[1,2] 王果[1,2] 潘洁晨[1] 张慧锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南工程学院土木工程学院,河南郑州451191 [2]煤化工资源综合利用与污染治理河南省工程实验室,河南郑州451191

出　　处：《湘潭大学自然科学学报》2016年第1期21-26,32,共7页Natural Science Journal of Xiangtan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1261206/E0422);河南省重点科技攻关计划项目(092102210252);河南省教育厅科技攻关项目(2010A420001);郑州市科技攻关计划项目(121PPTGG357)

摘　　要：采用优选组合理论,提出了基于单项预测模型筛选的隧道变形优选组合预测方法,建立了隧道变形预测系统.系统由包含各种监测成果的监测库、动态更新的变形预测模型库和模型评价库组成,采用人机对话方式在众多的经评价满足最优组合预测条件的单项预则模型中筛选出合理的单项模型,对其进行组合预测,继而再对不同的组合预测结果进行评价比较,得到较好的隧道变形组合预测结果.将该方法应用于隧道工程的拱顶下沉预测,利用前期工况的数据建模,对后期工况的未来变形量进行滚动预测,获得了令人满意的结果.Faced with numerous tunnel deformation forecasting models and methods,which exactly is the optimal one？This paper answered the question with the latest combination forecasting theory after the literature review,roposed the optimal tunnel deformation prediction method and established a tunnel deformation optimal prediction system which was proved very effective by the practice.Studies have shown that the accuracy of combination forecasting model of tunnel deformation prediction is higher than any individual prediction model,and combination of the selected models after re-evaluation improves the prediction accuracy greatly,the optimal forecasting model can be selected with the given system.This method is applied to the tunnel crown settlement prediction to rolling forecast the future settlement with pre-condition modeling deformation,satisfactory results are achieved.

关 键 词：隧道变形预测 隧道拱顶下沉 隧道收敛 预测系统 最优组合预测 

分 类 号：TU463[建筑科学—结构工程]