“教育红利”对“人口红利”的替代作用研究  

Research on the Substitution of Education Dividend for Demographic Dividend

作　　者：钟水映[1] 赵雨[1] 任静儒[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2016年第2期26-34,126,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：人口年龄结构变化是影响经济增长的重要因素，但不是充要条件。人口年龄结构老化带来的人口红利逐渐消失对经济增长的负面影响可以通过人口受教育程度的提高得到补偿，人口受教育程度的持续提高是中国未来保持经济中高速增长的有利因素。文章依据加入了人口年龄结构变量和受教育程度变量的经济增长理论构建动态面板模型，并使用中国2000--2013年省级面板数据进行拟合，结果发现，在其他条件不变的情况下，人口受教育程度的提高能够减轻甚至抵消人口红利逐渐消失对经济增长的负面影响。The change of population age structure is a key factor for economic growth, but it's not a necessary and sufficient condition for that. As the aging population increases, the demographic dividend fades away gradually, which have negative effects on economic growth. But it can be compensated by the improvement of population education attainment. The improvement of population education attainment might be a positive factor for Chinese economy to keep growing at a high speed in the future. A dynamic panel model is built up according to the theoretical model of economic growth with population age structure variable and education attainment variable included. The model is fitted on the basis of the 2001-2012 panel data of each province. With population education attainment improving, it is found that when other conditions keep unchanged, the improvement of population education attainment will reduce or even offset the negative effects of demographic dividend on economic growth. Therefore,there is no need to worry about the negative effects of disappeared demographic dividend on economic growth. We should pay more attention to improve population education attainment.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人口红利 教育 经济增长 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]