基于Census X12和HP滤波的海南蔬菜价格波动特征及原因分析  

Price Volatility Features and Reasons of Hainan Vegetables Based on Census X12 and HP Filter Model

作　　者：叶露[1] 李玉萍[1] 余定国 秦小立[1] 孟猛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所/海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室,海南儋州571737 [2]儋州市物价局,海南儋州571737

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2016年第3期75-81,共7页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目(No.714281);海南省哲学社会科学2015年规划课题成果[No.HNSK(YB)15-31]

摘　　要：以海南省主要蔬菜品种2012年1月至2015年9月的月零售价格为研究对象,采用Census X12季节调整方法,把季节变动S分离出来,分析海南省各类蔬菜价格的季节性波动情况,进一步采用HP滤波法将趋势变动T、循环变动C分离出来,分析海南省各类蔬菜价格的趋势和循环波动情况。然后对海南省蔬菜价格波动原因进行分析。The research object was the retail price of main vegetable varieties from January 2012 to September 2015 in Hainan province, the Census X12 seasonal adjustment method was used to separate final seasonal factors from the time series to analyze seasonal fluctuation of Hainan vegetables price, and HP filter method was used to separate trend series and cycle series from the final trend-cycle series to analyze trend and cycle fluctuation of Hainan vegetables price. Then the reasons of the price fluctuation of Hainan vegetables were analyzed.

关 键 词：CENSUS X12 HP滤波 海南蔬菜 价格波动特征 原因 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]