中国主要粮食生产的化肥削减潜力及其碳减排效应  

Potentialities of fertilizer reduction for grain produce and effects on carbon emissions

作　　者：张灿强[1] 王莉[1] 华春林[2] 金书秦[1] 刘鹏涛[3] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810 [2]西南科技大学,绵阳621010 [3]全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第4期790-797,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CJY046);农业部软科学课题(201611);农业部农村经济研究中心2015年度重点调研课题

摘　　要：在保障中国粮食安全前提下,减少化肥不合理使用是实现农业可持续发展的重要挑战。测土配方施肥是兼顾粮食安全和生态安全的科学施肥方法,本文在中国粮食作物区域大配方施肥数据的基础上,系统测算小麦、玉米、水稻三大粮食作物化肥投入的削减潜力及其碳减排效应。结果显示,满足当前粮食产量水平下,全部采用测土配方施肥,小麦、玉米、水稻三大粮食作物主产区化肥投入可削减814.1万t/a,占主产区三大粮食作物化肥使用量的27.6%,小麦、水稻和玉米化肥使用可分别削减36.9%、28.1%和16.7%;三大粮食作物化肥使用削减可减少碳排放1 045.9万t/a。建议深入推进测土配方施肥,建立配方肥生产服务中心,出台配方肥使用补贴,创新补贴方式和推广模式,构建全国测土配方施肥大数据平台。China is the largest fertilizer producer and consumer and its fertilizer consumption has exceeded 59.96 million tons,almost one third of the world＇s total volume. A critical task is to improve agricultural sustainable development while ensuring food security and reducing unreasonable fertilizer usage. Soil Testing and Fertilization Recommendation（STFR）is a scientific method that ensures food security and ecological security. Based on national STFR data for grain crops as a reasonable volume of fertilizer input,we systematically calculated the potential reduction of fertilizer input on three main grain crops,wheat,maize and rice. The results indicated that the total reduction amount of fertilizer input for wheat,maize and rice can be 8.141 million tons,accounting for 27.6% of the amount of total fertilizer use in three main crop production areas while grain productivity can meet current levels. The percentage of fertilizer reduction for wheat,rice and maize is 36.9%,28.1% and 16.7% respectively. Synthetic fertilizers are highly energy- and carbon- intensive products. The volume of carbon emissions was also assessed using China greenhouse gases emission factors. The result showed that 10.459 million tons of carbon emissions could be reduced due to fertilizer input decreases using STFR. Huge potential in carbon emission reductions are concentrated mainly in major provinces of grain production located on the North China plain and Northeast plain. These results imply that policy- makers and government should widely spread STFR,establish a service center for STFR produce,increase the subsidy for using STFR,create new promotion methods,and establish a national STFR big-data platform.

关 键 词：粮食安全 化肥 零增长 测土配方施肥 碳排放 中国 

分 类 号：S143[农业科学—肥料学] F326.11[农业科学—农业基础科学]