会计盈余、股票指数与经济增长  

Accounting Earnings,Stock Index and Economic Growth

作　　者：周卫华[1,2] 董昕[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院,北京100142 [2]中央财经大学会计学院,北京100081 [3]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2016年第3期11-20,共10页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

摘　　要：会计盈余作为企业经营的重要会计指标,不仅具有微观经济信息含量而且具有宏观经济信息含量。通过构建累计会计盈余指标,分析累计会计盈余与宏观经济增长的关系,可研究会计盈余的宏观信息含量。研究发现,累计会计盈余增长对于未来经济增长具有显著的预测作用,而与股票指数不具有统计学意义上的相关性。因此,中国股市可以通过会计盈余指标呈现"经济晴雨表"的功效。As an important indicator of corporation operation,accounting earnings have not only macroeconomic information but also microeconomic information. This paper constructs the index of aggregate accounting earnings,studies the relationship between aggregate accounting earnings and microeconomic growth,and discusses the micro information content of accounting earnings. It is found that aggregate accounting earnings growth is significant indicator of growth in GDP,but not of growth in stock index. Therefore,accounting earnings reported by financial market is a barometer of micro economy.

关 键 词：会计盈余 股票指数 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]