京津冀区域经济面临的空间溢出效应  

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Economic Growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

作　　者：周文通[1] 孙铁山[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2016年第3期50-58,共9页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国特大城市多中心空间发展的模式;效应及动力机制-多城市比较和实证"(41371005)

摘　　要：基于贝叶斯空间计量和京津冀区县经济数据,可探讨京津冀区域经济面临的空间溢出效应。结果表明:(1)从平均空间溢出视角,各区县本地人力资本对周边经济抑制效应逐渐增强;本地交通设施和投资开始促进周边经济;(2)从边际空间溢出视角,京津冀各区域经济联系不断加强,本地要素对周边经济影响范围呈扩张态势,各区县同更多周边区县保持密切经济联系;(3)从局部空间溢出视角,京津冀地区十年来形成了"核心-边缘"空间结构。This paper calculates and analyses the spatial spillover which influences regional economy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei（ BTH） region. The results show：（ 1） from the average spatial spillover perspective,the negative effect of local county＇s human resources on surrounding counties＇ economic growth strengthens; local traffic facilities and investing activities begin to promote surrounding counties＇ economic growth.（ 2） From the marginal spatial spillover perspective,the economic ties of BTH region increasingly strengthen,the reach of local factors to surrounding counties＇ economy expands,and every county tends to keep economic relationship with more surrounding counties.（ 3） From the regional spatial spillover perspective,BTH region has formed the＂core- periphery＂spatial structure in the past 10 years.

关 键 词：京津冀 空间溢出效应 空间杜宾模型 贝叶斯方法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]