基于空间计量的我国房地产价格集聚与差异研究  

The research on real estate price agglomeration and heterogeneity in China based on spatial econometrics

作　　者：董纪昌[1] 张欣[1] 周克成[1] 李秀婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2016年第4期875-883,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173213;71203217;71403260);中国博士后科学基金(2013M540129)~~

摘　　要：人口、经济、环境等因素空间分布不均导致房地产市场供求水平的高度层次性和差别性,进而引致商品房价格的空间集聚与差异.本文基于我国287个地级市2002-2012年的相关统计数据进行实证分析,结果表明我国区域房地产市场存在显著的空间依赖性,并呈现逐年增强的趋势.空间计量模型在分析该类经济现象时更具有说服力和解释力,模型结果显示收入水平差异、供需失衡以及人口迁移是各地市房地产价格差异主要原因.Uneven distribution of population, economy, environment and other factors lead to nlgn alspar- ities in real estate market supply and demand and further cause spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity of commercial housing prices. This paper took an empirical analysis on this phenomenon with statistical data of 287 cities between the year of 2002 and 2012. The result shows that real estate prices among cities are significantly spatial-autocorrelated in China, which is more and more obvious over time. And this paper finds that, spatial econometric model is more explanatory in analysis of these phenomena. What＇s more, the result reveals income disparities, imbalance between supply and demand, and population migration might be the primary factors leading to heterogeneity in real estate prices.

关 键 词：房地产价格 空间误差模型 空间滞后模型 空间集聚 空间异质性 

分 类 号：F293.33[经济管理—国民经济]