APSIM模型对宁夏海原地区草田轮作系统的适应性  

Adaptability of APSIM Model in Simulating Lucerne-Wheat-Millet Crop Rotation System in Haiyuan Region of Ningxia

作　　者：奥海玮[1] 谢应忠[1] 李永宏 马建乐[3] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学,宁夏银川750021 [2]新西兰草地农业研究院草地研究中心,新西兰北帕尔默斯顿11008 [3]中国矿业大学银川学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《草地学报》2016年第1期146-155,共10页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31160484);宁夏大学211培育项目资助

摘　　要：为验证APSIM模型对宁夏海原地区草田轮作系统的适用性,基于10年生苜蓿(Medicago sativa)与小麦(Triticum aestivum)、谷子(Oryza sativa)草田轮作试验数据和同期气象资料,运用APSIM模型对系统进行了模拟。通过试错法和文献记载完成了苜蓿、小麦和谷子几个品种的参数本地化。用统计和图形校验方法评价了APSIM模型模拟结果的可靠性和准确性。结果表明,谷子-小麦-小麦(MWW)、小麦-谷子-小麦(WMW)、谷子-谷子-小麦(MMW)、谷子-小麦-谷子(MWM)、小麦-谷子-谷子(WMM)、小麦-小麦-谷子(WWM)6种轮作方式下产量实测值和模拟值的决定系数R2值范围在0.83至0.98之间,D值范围在0.94至0.99之间,表现出了良好的相关性和一致性。土壤含水量实测值和模拟值的决定系数R2值范围在0.52至1之间,D值范围在0.92至0.97之间,相关性和一致性表现良好。表明APSIM模型对宁夏海原地区苜蓿与小麦、谷子轮作具有较好的模拟能力,可以用来模拟分析该地区草田轮作系统生产潜力和土壤水分动态,对该地区气候变化影响下草田轮作的优化管理具有一定指导意义。The performance of APSIM model in simulating lucerne（Medicago sativa）-wheat（Triticum aestivum）-millet（Oryza sativa）crop rotation system was assessed against the crop observations from Haiyuan region of Ningxia in Western China.The model parameters for characterizing plant growth and development of local cultivars were specified based on the crop observations in literatures or estimated using try-and-error methods.The model performance in simulating soil moisture and crop production of a lucerne-wheat-millet rotation system was assessed against the observations from the 6different crop rotation scenarios to validate the model parameterization.The simulations used local meteorological data and soil profile description at pilot site.The results showed that the modeled soil moisture matched well with the observed（R2 value ranged between 0.52 and 1,D value ranged between 0.92 and 0.97）and the modeled plant production simulated well with the observed（R2 value ranged between 0.83 and 0.98,D value ranged between 0.94 and 0.99）.This model parameterization and validation provides the confidence for using the model to optimize Lucerne-wheat-millet rotation system management and to assess climate change impacts on crop production in Haiyuan region of Ningxia.

关 键 词：APSIM模型 宁夏海原 草田轮作 参数本地化 适应性 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]