GMRIO模型视角下中国对外贸易环境效应研究  

Investigating the Environment Effect of China's Foreign Trade in Perspective of GMRIO Model

作　　者：谢锐[1,2] 赵果梅 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院 [2]湖南省两型社会与生态文明协同创新中心

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2016年第5期84-102,共19页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"环境规制对能源-经济-环境系统的影响及其路径选择:基于动态CGE模型的研究"(71303076);博士后科学基金面上资助项目"东亚区域贸易自由化对我国环境效应的动态一般均衡分析"(2012M510057);湖南省软科学重点项目"长江经济带发展背景下推动长株潭城市群生态环境协同治理机制与对策研究"(2015zk2002)的资助

摘　　要：基于GMRIO模型,构建充分考虑各国污染物排放强度和中间投入技术系数差异的环境贸易平衡（ETB）和污染贸易条件（PTT）测算模型,并对其影响因素进行结构分解。结果发现,19952009年中国CO2和三种污染物的ETB均为赤字且赤字额呈扩大趋势,出口规模效应是导致其增加的最主要因素,但出口排放强度和进口规模效应是抑制其增加的最主要因素;PTT均大于1,“污染天堂假说”成立,不过整体呈下降趋势,出口排放强度效应是导致其下降的最主要因素。Considering the discrepancy among countries in pollution emission intensity and intermediate input coefficient, this study, based on the global multi-regional input-out- put model （GMRIO）, establishes a model to calculate the Environment Trade Balance （ETB） and the Pollution Terms of Trade （PTT）. By using the Structure Decomposition A- nalysis （SDA） method, we further analyze the factors that influence the ETB and the PTT in China. The findings show that, firstly, from 1995 to 2009, the ETB of CO2 and other three pollutants are in deficit and increasing in trend, the export scale effect （ECE） is the major factor to enlarge the ETD, while the effect of China＇s export pollutant emissions in- tensity （EIE） and import scale effect （ISE） are means to downsize the ETD. Secondly, the PTT for CO2, NHa, NOx, and SOx are always larger than one, so that the ＂Pollution haven hypothesis＂ is established in China. However, the PTT are gradually decreasing, EIE is the major factor to inhibit the PTT growth.

关 键 词：GMRIO 环境贸易 污染贸易 结构分解 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]