基于隶属度权重的化工园区供电工程模糊综合评价  

On the fuzzy comprehensive assessment approach to the power supply & distribution system in the chemical industry parks based on the dynamic weights of the membership degrees

作　　者：段在鹏[1,2] 钱新明[1] 王如君[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]福州大学环境与资源学院,福州350116 [3]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2016年第2期40-44,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012 BAK13B01)

摘　　要：供配电系统作为化工园区的公用工程,其一旦发生故障将会引起园区众多企业故障,合理的配电系统评价是化工园区正常运转的保障。首先通过类比基于可拓学的简单关联度动态指标权重等理论,建立基于模糊隶属度的动态权重模型,一方面避免人为主观因素的影响,使权重只随指标得分浮动变化,另一方面实现"理论闭包",即权重求解方法只基于模糊综合评价自身,然后应用层次分析法(AHP)求算准则层各指标主观权重,并建模实现模糊隶属度动态权重与主观权重的糅合,最后将该方法应用于化工园区配电系统模糊综合评价,评价得分为77.81分,评语为"良好",与经典AHP权重的模糊评价结果基本一致。The purpose of this paper is to present our research results on the real-time objective operation evaluation for the power supply and distribution system in the chemical industry parks,which serves as a part of the utilities in the chemical industry parks in China. Actually,it is of great significance to make a thorough and deep-going research of the problems in this area and guarantee the smooth and successful operation of the power supply and distribution in chemical industry parks. For the aforementioned research purpose,we have first of all made a simulation study via analogy of simple dependent degree dynamic index weights theory based on the theory of extenics. And,in turn,we have built up a dynamic weight model based on the fuzzy membership degree, including the judgment set and the membership function in hoping to reflect both the parameters involved and the necessary information database. On the one hand,we have made efforts to avoid the effects of the indispensible subjective factors by setting up necessary fluctuated weights only with index scores.On the other hand,we have achieved some theoretical closures in the form of weights based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory. Secondly,some necessary subjective weights for the indexes at the guideline layers are included by the Analytic Hierarchy Process method（ AHP）. What is more,we have obtained some index weights of the index layers in the form of dynamic objective weights based on actual calculation need. And,finally,the power supply system evaluation index system for the chemical industry parks whose guideline hierarchies are supposed to consist of the supply safety,reliability,economy,and harmony,and,in addition,the subjective and objective dynamic weights of membership degree necessary for the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The evaluation result of the trial application of the system we have established has been given 77. 81 points. Such a kind of the official judgment can be regarded as being ‘good＇. The results of the judgment can

关 键 词：安全工程 化工园区 配电系统 主客观动态权重 模糊隶属度 AHP 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]