基于风险因子概率传递的公路选线经济风险评估  

Economic risk assessment of highway route selection based on the risk factor transfer probability

作　　者：李军[1] 黄海宁[1] 徐志胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,长沙410004

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2016年第2期49-52,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51378512)

摘　　要：阐述了现行道路选线设计中存在的不确定因素对整体选线设计的影响,分析了在道路选线经济评价中引入风险评估思想,并以风险估计结果作为选线设计可行性分析的一个重要参数的可行性和实用性。结合概率统计和概率传递的理论,采用数学解析法,提出了一种基于风险因子概率传递模型的高速公路选线经济风险评估方法;通过专家的主观经验、研究和分析历史数据,对各个风险因子进行概率估计和相关分析,引入公路经济风险评估风险因子的概念,建立了选线经济风险评估模型(PHIO)计算公路选线的经济风险,并实现了实例验证。The present paper is aimed at presenting an economic risk assessment model for the expressway line alignment based on the probability transfer analysis of the risk factors and the probability statistics theory. The said model for the linear alignment of the expressways can not only help the expressway designers to choose the best favorable route in accordance with the objective natural conditions,but also facilitate them to evaluate the economic risk and flexible variables for the undergoing engineering project to reduce the economic deviation from the subjective estimates via the risk assessment. As is seen in the expressway design practice,when the theory of the risk factor transfer probability is applied to the design practice,it is necessary to take into full account the economic cost for the actual project,the overall expenditure of the engineering project,the revenue likely to be gained through the quantitative and qualitative analysis with the help of the experience of the experts in the field. For this purpose,we have explored the probability of all the likely risk factors while studying the historical data and introducing the concepts of the risk factors so as to establish an economic risk assessment model（ PHIO） by calculating the economic risks in the route alignment. To build up such a comprehensive evaluation model for assessing the probability transmission,it is believed necessary to solve the mutual relation between the risk factors in the route alignment with the small amounts of calculation and simple input data in its capacity for evaluating the total engineering investment. In the model we have developed,it would be easy for the users to find the maximum key risk factor in the transferring of risk factors by analyzing the digital eigenvalue of probability distribution through risk assessment. The results of our study have shown that our risk assessment model is qualified to provide a reference to the feasibility study stage in the route selection. The unique feature of this paper is to brin

关 键 词：安全工程 公路选线 概率传递 概率分布 风险因子 相关分析 

分 类 号：X959[环境科学与工程—安全科学]