1990—2010年中国极端温度和降水事件的月变化特征  

Variations of Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China during 1990-2010

作　　者：杜予罡[1,2,3] 徐昕[4] 王元[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]上海台风研究所,上海200030 [3]上海中心气象台,上海200030 [4]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2016年第1期9-15,共7页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：上海市科学技术委员会科研计划项目(编号:14231202400)

摘　　要：利用1960—2010年中国532个台站的日最低、最高气温和日降水资料,选取4个极端温度指数(冷昼、冷夜、暖昼和暖夜)和2个极端降水指数(极端降水量和极端降水频次),对1990—2010年极端温度和降水事件相对于之前1960—1989年的月尺度变化进行了研究。得到以下主要结论:1)逐月的冷昼和冷夜发生频率减少,逐月的暖昼和暖夜发生频率增多。冷极端事件发生频率的变化比暖极端事件更明显。2)4个指数在2月均表现出频率变化异常剧烈的月尺度特征,这主要与中国地区2月增暖最显著有关。4个指数在2月频率变化的空间分布,中国北方地区(东北、华北以及西北)极端温度事件的频率变化比南方地区(西南、华南以及长江流域)更显著。3)对于极端降水事件,1990—2010年中国极端降水量增加最大的月份为6—7月,极端降水频次增加较多的月份为1—3月。中国各区域极端降水量变化最大的月份集中在夏季6—8月,其中西北、西南和长江中下游地区极端降水量显著增加。对于极端降水频次,东北和西北地区在1月增加最多;华北、西南、长江中下游和华南地区分别在3、5、7和12月增加最多。除华南地区以外,其他5个区域均通过了信度为0.05的显著性检验。Extreme weather and c limate events are usually referred to the events characterized by the occurrence with low frequency in the sense of statistics. In recent years,there is an increasing concern on weather and climate extremes due to their serious disasters to human society and nature. This work is aimed to provide a preliminary investigation of the variations of monthly extreme weather and climate events（including temperature extremes and precipitation extremes）in recent years over China. Variations of temperature extremes and precipitation extremes have been investigated over China for 50 years（1960-2010）. The 50 years werefirstly divided into two periods with the first period from 1960 to 1989 and the rest for the second. During the second period,four percentile-based indices derived from daily minimum and maximum surface air temperature and two percentile-based indices derived from daily precipitation（total numbers of meteorological observing stations is 532） are computed and compared to the corresponding values of the first period. The conclusions can be summarized as follows：1）The frequency of monthly cold extremes notably decease,whereas the frequency of monthly warm extremes increase. Moreover, the frequency of monthly cold extremes changes more significant than that of monthly warm extremes. The monthly temperature extremes except those in warm days had the largest variations in February. Notable frequency decrease of temperature extremes in February are found in Northeast China,North China and Northwest China. 2） Monthly extreme precipitation amount displays most remarkable increases in June and July,while monthly extreme precipitation frequency displays remarkable increases in January,February and March. 3） As for six regions of China,amounts of monthly extreme precipitation dramatically increases concentrated in June-August,with significant increases in Northwest China,Southwest China and Yangtze River valley. Extreme precipitation days of Northeast China,Northwest China,North Ch

关 键 词：极端温度事件 极端降水事件 月变化 中国地区 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]