SPI和SPEI在阿克苏河流域的适用性分析  

Applicability analysis of SPI and SPEI in Aksu River basin

作　　者：李思诺[1,2] 翁白莎[2] 严登明 王建伟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水电学院,河北邯郸056006 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]东华大学环境科学与工程学院,上海201620

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2016年第1期101-107,113,共8页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC19B03;2013BAC10B01)

摘　　要：干旱区常年降水稀少,生态环境脆弱,是干旱评价中相对特殊的区域,一般适用性较好的干旱指数在这里仍需进一步论证才能应用于干旱监测中。根据阿克苏河流域DEM、土地利用现状,将流域进行细化,最终形成4个山区、2个荒漠区和5个绿洲区共11个分区的阿克苏河流域干旱评价单元。以流域内6个气象站1961-2011年逐月平均气温和降水资料计算研究区过去51年各评价分区的标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI),并将所得干旱状况与历史旱情进行对比分析。结果表明:在平原区,短时间尺度(1、3、6月)的SPEI较SPI更能表达干旱演变趋势,但在旱情表达的时间精度上仍有些欠缺,而长时间尺度(12、24月)的SPI和SPEI基本可以表达出干旱年;在山区的表达精度需要进一步求证。The arid area is a very special zone for arid evaluation because of little rain and fragile environment. The general drought index of better applicability need further argument so as to apply to the drought monitoring. This study region is first divided into districts such as the sub- region,including 4mountain areas,2 desert areas and 5 oasis areas,which are delineated for the Aksu River basin based on the DEM and land use types. In this study,the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to2011 were used to analyze and compare the applicability of standardized precipitation index（ SPI） and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index（ SPEI） in each study area. It analyzed the gotten situation of drought and historical drought. The results show that SPEI with short time scale（ 1、3、6 months）can more exactly express the arid tendency than SPI,but it still have errors in expressing the real historical drought change. The SPI and SPEI with long time scale（ 12 or 24 months） can basically express the drought year,but the precision of two standardized drought indices in mountains still need further validation.

关 键 词：干旱指标 标准化降水指标 标准化降水蒸发指标 干旱区 阿克苏河流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]