城镇化进程中居民生活碳排放动态特征分析  

Dynamic Analysis of Carbon Emissions for Urban and Rural Residents in the Process of Urbanization

作　　者：杜威[1] 樊胜岳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第5期48-52,101,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"以公共价值为基础的沙漠化治理政策绩效评价与校验"(41371529);国家自然科学基金"制度因素对沙漠化影响的定量分析"(41071353)

摘　　要：对2000~2012年间中国城镇居民与农村居民的直接、间接碳排放变化情况进行统计及回归分析,结果表明：截至2012年,城镇居民人均直接碳排放量年均增长17.14%,间接碳排放量年均增长6.42%,农村居民人均直接碳排放量年均增长16.51%,间接碳排放量年均增长2.81%;能源消费强度的下降及居民生活消费支出的上升联合作用,使城镇与农村居民生活间接碳排放量均呈现波动增长趋势,其中食品与居住消费是居民间接碳排放主导因素;城镇居民人口数量是城镇居民生活碳排放总量的决定性因素;城镇生活方式相比农村具有更低的单位生活支出碳排放量;城镇化率对居民生活碳排放量分别具有0.13%和0.09%的弹性系数,初步验证了城镇化与居民生活碳排放的正相关关系。By statistics and regression analysis method,this essay measures the change of direct and indirect carbon emissions caused by urban residents and rural residents during 2000-2012.The results show that：direct carbon emissions of urban residents has an average annual growth of 17.14% and indirect carbon emissions have an average annual growth of 6.42%.By contrast,direct carbon emissions of rural residents have an average annual growth of 16.51% and indirect carbon emissions have an average annual growth of 2.81%;the decrease of energy consumption intensity and the increase of living expenses of residents lead to an fluctuate increase of indirect carbon emissions.Consumption of food and horses are leading factors;population size is the key factor of total carbon release of urban residents;urban lifestyle has lower carbon emissions per-consumption than rural lifestyle;urbanization rate has a 0.13% elasticity for urban residents and 0.09% elasticity for rural residents.The research verifies the positive correlation between urbanization and residents carbon emissions.

关 键 词：城镇化 间接碳排放 居民生活消费 Stepwise分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]