南海-北印度洋波高的长期变化:Ⅱ.趋势的区域性、季节性差异  

Long-term trend of SWH from year 1958 to 2001 in the South China Sea and the North Indian Ocean

作　　者：高占胜[1] 郑崇伟[1,2] 李训强[2] 刘文鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军大连舰艇学院航海系,辽宁大连116018 [2]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101

出　　处：《海洋预报》2016年第2期39-44,共6页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41205073;41275099)

摘　　要：利用ERA-40海表10 m风场驱动WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(WW3)海浪模式,模拟得到南海-北印度洋1957年9月—2002年8月的海浪资料,采用一元线性回归方法,分析了该海域有效波高的长期趋势,以期为研究全球气候变化、波浪能资源开发、防灾减灾等提供参考。结果表明:(1)1958—2001年期间,该海域的SWH有线性递增趋势,递增率为0.0017 m/a,且变化趋势表现出很大的区域性差异:仅部分小范围海域呈显著性递减,其余大部分海域的SWH呈显著性递增;(2)SWH的变化趋势存在较大的季节性差异:各个季节呈显著性递减的区域范围都较小;低纬度的递增趋势主要体现在春季和冬季,尤其冬季几乎整个南海-北印度洋的SWH均呈显著性递增趋势;索马里以东一近似圆形海域的递增趋势主要体现在夏季。In this study, the wave in the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean from was simulated from December 1957 to August 2002 by using WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ（WW3） wave model with ERA-40 wind data as the driving field. The long-term trend of SWH was analyzed based on the linear regression method to provide references for studying the global climate change, wave energy resource development and disaster prevention and reduction. Results show that：（1） During 1958 to 2001, the averaged SWH in the study area exhibits a significant increasing trend, with a rate of 0.0017m/a. The change trend of SWH also has obvious regional difference,increasing in most areas, while decreasing in a small-scale area.（2） The variation trend of SWH has a significant seasonal difference. The scale of waters with decreasing trend of SWH is small in each season. The increasing trend of SWH in lower latitudes mainly reflected in the spring and winter, especially in the winter almost the entire South China Sea-North Indian Ocean SWH showed a statistically significant increasing trend.

关 键 词：WAVEWATCH-Ⅱ海浪模式 线性趋势 区域性差异 季节性差异 

分 类 号：P731.22[天文地球—海洋科学]