论商业银行现金流量表的重构——兼析我国商业银行可持续分红能力  

A Study on the Restructuring of the Cash Flow Statement of Commercial Banks and Their Sustainable Ability to Pay Cash Dividends

作　　者：谢德仁[1] 张梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,100084 [2]福建江夏学院会计学院,350108

出　　处：《会计研究》2016年第3期21-28,95,共8页Accounting Research

基　　金：财政部"会计名家培养工程"资助项目的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文深入分析了商业银行现行现金流量表的编制错误,提出应将与吸收存款、提取存款及支付存款利息直接相关的现金流量从现行的经营活动现金流量之中调整出来,重新分类计入筹资活动现金流量之中。基于商业银行重构前后的现金流量表,本文利用我国A股16家上市商业银行的数据对它们的可持续分红能力进行了解析。本文发现,即使是按照重构前的现金流量表,也有半数以上的商业银行存在庞氏分红现象,其中还有4家同时出现庞氏利息现象;而按照重构后的现金流量表,则全部16家上市商业银行都处于严重的双庞氏状态。因此,在过去十余年间,我国上市商业银行是没有可持续分红能力和短期分红能力的。至于我国商业银行未来期间的可持续分红能力如何,则有待观察获得贷款的那些主体的资产结构及其未来现金流量创造能力。The paper suggests that commercial banks should reclassify cash flow regarding the savings deposits,deposits drawing and interest payment for deposits,which are now included in the operating cash flow,into the financing cash flow. Additionally,we use the pre- and post- restructuring cash flow data of 16 A share listed commercial banks in China to analyze the sustainable ability of commercial banks to pay cash dividends. Unfortunately,there are 9 banks whose dividends are Ponzi-dividends,and 4 banks whose interest payments are Ponzi-interests at the same time,even based on the pre- restructuring cash flow data. If the analyses were based on the post- restructuring cash flow data,all of the 16 banks keep Double-Ponzi status( i. e. Ponzi-dividends & Ponzi-interests). Consequently,we could conclude that the ability of listed commercial banks to pay cash dividends is poor and unsustainable.

关 键 词：商业银行 现金流量表 重构 存款 分红能力 

分 类 号：F832.33[经济管理—金融学] F830.42