基于人均GDP差异的生活用水量模拟及增长潜力分析  

Simulation and growth potential of domestic water consumption based on difference in per capita GDP

作　　者：马黎华[1] 粟晓玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学资源环境学院,重庆北碚400715 [2]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第5期133-138,共6页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51279166;51509214);西南大学基本科研业务费专项(XDJK2013C153);西南大学博士基金项目(2120132467)

摘　　要：【目的】分析城市居民人均生活用水量的增长潜力,为保障城市用水安全提供决策依据。【方法】以2009-2011年858个中国城市用水及相关数据为研究对象,应用线性回归模型、幂函数模型、对数函数模型和ANNBP模型,基于人均GDP的差异分别建立人均生活用水量模型,进行人均生活用水量的增长潜力分析。【结果】在不同的人均GDP水平下,模型对于高收入的数据样本最为敏感;线性回归模型、幂函数模型和ANN-BP模型的模拟效果较为接近,对数函数模型的误差最大。人均生活用水量增长潜力最大的是年人均GDP低于3万元的城市,增长潜力最小的为年人均GDP〉3~≤10万元的城市。【结论】基于人均GDP差异可以进行生活用水量的模拟与预测,人均GDP小于3万元的城市将成为人均生活用水量增加的主要来源。【Objective】This study analyzed the growth potential of urban residential water use per capita to provide basis for protection of urban water security.【Method】Water consumption and relevant data in 2009 to 2011of 858 cities were analyzed using linear regression model,power model,logarithmic model,and ANN-BP model.Then,the domestic water consumption model was established based on difference in per capita GDP and it was used to analyze the growth of per capita water use.【Result】The performance of models was most sensitive to high income data group.The error of logarithmic model was the largest while that of linear regression model,power model and ANN-BP model were similar.The cities with per capita GDP of less than 3×10^4 Yuan had the greatest potential for growth of per capita water use while the cities with per capita GDP of 3×10^4-10×10^4 Yuan had the smallest potential.【Conclusion】Based on the analysis of difference in per capita GDP,the cities with per capita GDP of less than 3×10^4 Yuan will become the main contributor to the increase of urban residential water use per capita.

关 键 词：城市用水 用水量预测 用水量增长潜力分析 GDP ANN-BP模型 

分 类 号：TV212.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]