基于灰色关联法的北京山区水土保持生态安全评价  

Application of grey correlation method in evaluation soil and water conservation ecological security in Beijing mountainous area

作　　者：高春泥 程金花[1,2] 陈晓冰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]林业生态工程教育部工程研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第2期69-77,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家林业局林业公益性项目(201404209)~~

摘　　要：北京山区是调节首都生态环境的重要保护带,水土保持是北京山区改善生态环境的迫切需要,建立北京山区水土保持生态安全评价体系具有特殊意义。以北京的7个山区、县为研究对象,参考现有生态安全评价体系与方法,应用压力-状态-响应模型,选取影响水土保持生态安全的13项指标,建立了水土保持生态安全评价指标体系。依据指标体系选取2007,2009,2012这3a的数据运用熵权法确定指标权重,利用灰色关联法分析2007-2012年北京山区水土保持生态安全状况。结果表明：2007-2009年北京山区7区县水土保持生态安全指数由0.2008~0.2753上升至0.2205~0.3268,水土保持生态安全状态整体呈现好转趋势;2009-2012年其状态受自然灾害影响明显,状态呈现下降趋势,水土保持生态安全指数下降至0.2001~0.2825。水土保持生态安全指数与水土保持治理力度呈显著正相关,自然灾害引起的指标变化成为影响水土保持生态安全的主要因子。Beijing mountainous area is the buffer zone which can regulate the capital＇ s ecological environment. Soil and water conservation is an urgent need for improving the ecological environment of Beijing mountainous area. So it is of great significance to establish soil and water conservation ecological security evaluation system for Beijing mountains area. Based on the analysis of present situation and the problems of soil and water conservation ecological security in seven districts and counties of Beijing mountains area, this study selected 13 related indices of soil and water conservation in Beijing mountains area and applied the pressure - state - response （PSR） model to establish soil and water conservation ecological security evaluation index system. Data in the years of 2007,2009, 2012 were used to determine the index weight by the entropy weight method, and grey correlation method was used to analyze the soil and water conservation ecological security status in Beijing mountains area from 2007 to 2012. Results showed that, from 2007 to 2009, the soil and water conservation ecological security status of seven districts and counties in Beijing mountainous area presented a trend of improvement with the value of soil and water conservation ecological security index rose from 0. 2008 ~ 0. 2753 to 0. 2205 ~ 0. 3268. During 2009 -2012, the state showed a trend of decline due to the influence of natural disasters, with the index dropped down to 0. 2001 -0. 2825. Soiland water conservation ecological security index had significantly positive correlation with soil and water conserva- tion treatment efforts. Index changes caused by natural disasters had become the main factor affecting the soil and water conservation ecological security.

关 键 词：北京山区 水土保持生态安全 压力-状态-响应模型 熵权法 灰色关联法 

分 类 号：X954[环境科学与工程—安全科学]