3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis  

作　　者：王晓玲 孙小沛 张胜利 孙蕊蕊 李瑞金 朱泽彪 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University

出　　处：《Transactions of Tianjin University》2016年第2期110-120,共11页天津大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China("973" Program,No.2013CB035906);Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin(No.JCYBJC19500);the Foundation of Innovative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51321065)

摘　　要：The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario（floodplain, overflow or dike breach）, ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity（100-year and 200-year frequency） were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

关 键 词：SIMULATION storm surge disaster scenario analysis risk degree 3D SST k-ω turbulence model composite scenario 

分 类 号：TP391.41[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]