论货币量、价格水平与税收的联动关系  

Research on the Linkage between Money Supply,Price and Tax Revenue

作　　者：庞凤喜[1] 张丽微[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2016年第2期21-28,159,共8页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"宏观税负;税负结构与结构性减税研究"(12&ZD044)

摘　　要：理论上而言,若货币流通速度相对稳定,而货币量超经济快速增长,则必然引起价格水平的上涨,且在以商品劳务税为主体税种的税制结构下,这一同向变动关系将直接传递到税收。本文通过构建协整模型,证实了我国货币量、价格水平与税收之间存在的正向联动关系,如果将我国CPI统计口径存在一定缺陷,且长期被低估的情况考虑在内,这一联动关系将更加明显。在经济新常态下,我国应努力降低以价格为计税依据的商品劳务税占比,优化税制结构,以减轻企业和居民税收负担,诱导货币资金从房地产市场、股票市场流向实体经济。同时,应有效控制货币发行量和银行流动性规模,使货币量与经济增长相匹配,以降低通胀的潜在风险。Theoretically,if the money velocity is relatively stable,agreater growth rate than the economy for money supply will inevitably lead to price rising.As commodity and service tax are taken as the main taxes in the taxation structure,it will necessarily have a direct impact on tax revenue.This paper constructs the co-integration model to confirm the existence of positive linkage between money amounts,price-level and tax revenue,and if the consumer price index has not been undervalued,the linkage will become more significant.In the current context of the new-stage for economy,the government should strive to reduce of the proportion of commodity and service tax,in order to directly reduce the tax burden on enterprises and residents,and induce monetary funds in the real-estate or stock market to flow to the real economy.And it also should effectively control the currency issue and the scale of bank liquidity creation to a reasonable level so as to match with the economic growth and reduce the potential risk of inflation.

关 键 词：货币量 价格水平 商品劳务税 宏观税负 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]