贵州省农业气象灾害致灾因子的风险区划  

Risk Zoning of Inducing Agro-meteorological Disaster Factors in Guizhou

作　　者：于飞[1,2] 谷晓平[1,2] 袁淑杰[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]贵州省山地环境气候研究所,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵州贵阳550002 [3]成都信息工程大学,四川成都610225

出　　处：《贵州农业科学》2016年第4期138-141,共4页Guizhou Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"贵州突发性灾害防控技术研究与集成示范"(2012BAD20B06);贵州省重大科技专项"贵州‘两高’沿线特色农业气候精细化区划与气象灾害防控"[黔科合重大专项字(2011)6003]

摘　　要：为生产上作物布局的优化调整及气象灾害的预测与防治提供依据,在贵州主要农业气象灾害致灾因子风险评估的基础上,综合考虑贵州省农业气象灾害致灾因子和孕灾环境,采用局部薄盘光滑样条函数模型,将地理因子及孕灾环境作为变量和协变量,对贵州农业气象灾害致灾因子风险进行空间精细化区划。结果表明:贵州倒春寒的高风险区域主要分布在西北部的高海拔地区,秋风高风险区在西北部有成片分布;春旱呈从东到西逐渐加大的分布特点,相对高风险区域主要包括黔西南州、黔南州西南部、六盘水市、安顺市西南部和毕节地区西部;夏旱与春旱空间分布相反,呈从东向西逐渐减小的分布规律及水平地带的连续性和成片分布的特点,常年一般在贵州省东部地区出现成片的夏旱。该区划图(100m×100m栅格分辨率)相对于空间叠加法或传统空间插值方法具有更好的空间连续性和精确性。In order to provide reference for optimization adjustment of crop distribution in agriculture,and forecast and prevention of meteorological disaster,hazard of meteorological disaster to agricultural production in Guizhou was relieved,according to inducing agro-meteorological disaster factors and disasterpregnant environment on the basis of risk assessment of main inducing agro-meteorological disaster factors to optimize crops distribution in production.Results：Cold spell in later Spring of high risk areas are mainly distributed in the northwest of high altitude.Autumn wind of high risk areas is in the northwest with a film distribution.Distribution in spring increased gradually from east to west,relatively high risk area mainly consists of Western Guizhou,southwest of Qiannan state,Liupanshui City,Anshun in the southwestern part of the city and Bijie Prefecture.Drought in summer and drought spatial distribution on the contrary,is decreasing gradually from the east to the west and the regularities of distribution of the horizontal strip of continuity and a film distribution characteristic,year round general in the eastern area of Guizhou Province appear piece of drought in summer.The map（100m × 100mresolution）with respect to the spatial superposition method or traditional spatial interpolation method has better spatial continuity and accuracy.

关 键 词：农业气象灾害 致灾因子 风险区划 贵州 

分 类 号：S162.2[农业科学—农业气象学]