近30a中国龙卷风灾害特征研究  

Disaster characteristics of tornadoes over China during the past 30 years

作　　者：黄大鹏[1,2] 赵珊珊[1,2] 高歌[1,2] 肖潺[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2016年第2期97-101,共5页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101517);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015Z12)

摘　　要：基于中国气象局气象灾害灾情普查数据库中龙卷风灾情数据,采用时间序列统计分析、趋势分析和GIS空间分析方法,对1984—2013年中国龙卷风发生频次及其灾情进行了统计分析,同时分析了中国龙卷风及其灾害的时空分布特征。结果表明:近30 a,中国龙卷风灾害年发生次数和龙卷风导致的死亡(含失踪)人数、倒损房屋数量和直接经济损失均呈现下降趋势,其中龙卷风灾害发生频次和死亡人数下降趋势明显,而直接经济损失下降趋势较弱;中国龙卷风灾害发生次数及其导致的死亡人数、倒损房屋和直接经济损失均表现为夏季最多,春季次之,其中,7月份龙卷风发生次数最多且灾情最重;空间分布上,中国龙卷风灾害发生次数和直接经济损失均表现为西少东多的特征,死亡人数和倒损房屋数量主要分布在我国东部偏南地区;西北和西南地区龙卷风灾害发生少、灾情轻,而中东部地区的江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南、江西和广东龙卷风发生频次高、死亡(含失踪)人数多且经济损失较重,其中江苏和安徽最为严重。Based on historical damage data of tornados extracted from the meteorological disaster database in China Meteorological Administration, we have counted the frequency and disaster situation of tornado over China from 1984 to 2013, and then analyzed their spatial-temporal characteristics by using time series statistical analysis, trend analysis and GIS spatial analysis methods. Results show that the decreasing trends of the tornado occurrence frequency and the number of dead or missing persons caused by tornados are evident in China from 1984 to 2013. The number of damaged or collapsed houses shows a decreased trend, while the direct economic losses only decreased slightly. Tornadoes occur mainly in summer, especially in July, and rarely occur in winter. Most of the dead or missing people, most of the damaged or collapsed houses and most of the direct economic losses occur in summer, especially in July. From west to east in China, the occurrence frequency of tornado and the direct economic losses increase spatially. The dead or missing people and the damaged（or collapsed） houses are mainly distributed in southern part of East China. Tornados rarely occur in Northwest China and Southwest China, and the damages are less serious these regions than that in east-central China. Tornados occur frequently in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Guangdong provinces with serious economic losses and many people die from the tornado in these provinces. The tornado damage is the most serious in Jiangsu province and Anhui province.

关 键 词：龙卷风 趋势分析 GIS空间分析 灾害特征 

分 类 号：P445.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]