村镇饮用水水源地安全预警模型研究——以贵州省为例  

Early-warning Model of the Township Drinking Water Sources Security in Guizhou Province

作　　者：潘真真[1] 苏维词[1,2] 王建伟[3] 郭晓娜[1] 王伟 吴克华[2] 易武英[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆400047 [2]贵州科学院山地资源研究所,贵阳550001 [3]中国地质大学生物地质与环境地质国家重点实验室,武汉430074 [4]贵州省地质工程勘察设计研究院,贵阳550001

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2016年第4期32-38,共7页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ25B09)

摘　　要：水源地安全预警是保护村镇饮用水安全中不可或缺的一个环节。以贵州省1 224个村镇水源地为例,基于压力-状态-响应模型构建村镇饮用水水源地安全预警指标体系,运用惩罚型变权—可拓物元评价方法对贵州省2000—2013年村镇饮用水水源地安全等级进行测度,并运用马尔科夫模型对贵州省2014—2020年水源地安全等级进行了预测。结果表明,贵州省村镇饮用水水源地安全等级整体呈好转的趋势,2000—2013年水源地安全等级从"巨警Ⅰ"演变为"中警Ⅲ",对应的警情指示灯由"红色"演化为"黄色";影响贵州省村镇饮用水水源地安全的主要影响因素是植被覆盖率、裸岩率、水源保证率、人均供水量、农田灌溉单位面积用水量、COD排放负荷等指标,在今后的水源地保护工作中应予以重视;2014—2020年贵州省村镇饮用水水源地安全预测等级分别为"中警Ⅲ"和"轻警Ⅳ",指示灯为"黄色"和"蓝色",但水源地安全等级具有向"中警Ⅲ"恶化的趋势。Early-warning of drinking water sources has been a necessary and important process for protecting the township drinking water security.Based on the pressure,status,response（P-S-R）framework model,1 224 drinking water sources in Guizhou province were taken as the examples to construct the earlywarning index system of the township drinking water sources,and the punished variable weight and matter-element extension model were used to test the early-warning degree of township drinking water sources security in Guizhou province from 2000 to 2013.The Markov model was used to forecast the township drinking water sources security state in Guizhou province from 2014 to 2020.The results indicated that1 the overall level of township drinking water sources security showed an improvement trend in Guizhou province in 2000—2013,the warning degree rose from ＂Huge alarmⅠ＂to＂moderate alarm Ⅲ＂and the indicator lamp turned from ＂Red＂to＂Yellow＂;2The main factors that restricted the improvement of township drinking water sources security in Guizhou province included vegetation cover rate,bare rock ratio,water source guarantee rate,water per person,water consumption per acre,emission load of COD,which were the focus of the drinking water sources security protection in the future.3The warning degree would be＂Moderate alarm Ⅲ＂and ＂Light alarm Ⅳ＂in Guizhou province from 2014 to 2020,and the indicator light would be＂Yellow＂and＂Blue＂,but it had the trend of turning into＂Moderate alarm Ⅲ＂.This study would provide a reference to protect the township drinking water sources security of Guizhou province.

关 键 词：村镇饮用水水源地 评价指标体系 预警模型 贵州省 

分 类 号：S277.7[农业科学—农业水土工程]