水稻产量和灌溉需水量的气候敏感性分析及贡献量评估  

Sensitivity Analysis and Contribution of Climate Variables to Rice Yield and Irrigation Water Requirement

作　　者：丁一民[1] 王卫光[1] 孙风朝[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [2]山西水利职业技术学院,山西运城044004

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2016年第4期39-42,共4页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51379057)

摘　　要：以苏南地区单季稻为研究对象,基于ORYZA2000水稻模型结合去趋势的气象变量定量评估了研究区1961—2010年各气象变量对水稻产量、灌溉需水量和耗水量变化的贡献量,并进行了气象变量敏感性分析。结果表明,1961—2010年,水稻产量和灌溉需水量均呈下降趋势,其中产量下降趋势显著,而耗水量上升趋势显著;辐射的下降对水稻产量变化贡献量最大,导致了产量的显著下降,而风速和辐射的下降以及水气压的增加引起耗水量的下降,但气温升高对其贡献了更大的增加量,多变量共同作用导致耗水量显著增加,降水量的增加导致了灌溉需水量的下降;产量对辐射最敏感,其次是最高气温和最低气温;灌溉需水量和耗水量对最高气温最敏感,其次是最低气温和水气压。With rice in south of Jiangsu rice planting area as the research object,contribution degree of six climate variables to rice yields,water consumption and irrigation water requirement from 1961 to 2010were assessed based on well valid ORYZA2000 combined with trend removed meteorological series,and sensitivity of meteorological variables were analyzed based on sensitivity curve method.The results showed that：in the past 50 years,rice yields decreased significantly and water consumption increased significantly,while irrigation water requirement had a non-significant increasing trend;Radiation decline gave the greatest contribution to the rice yield change,which directly led to the production dropped significantly.The declines of wind speed,radiation and the increase of vapor pressure attracted the decline of rice water consumption,while temperature increasing had a greater contribution to water consumption,those aspects function together led to the increase of water consumption,while the increase of precipitation led to the decline of irrigation water requirement;the most sensitive variable for the rice yield was radiation,followed by maximum and minimum temperature,while maximum temperature was the most sensitive variable to rice water consumption and irrigation water requirement,followed by minimum temperature.

关 键 词：气候变化 灌溉需水量 敏感性分析 贡献量 ORYZA2000 

分 类 号：S511.22[农业科学—作物学]