草地螟2代幼虫发生的气象条件等级预报方法——以兴安盟为例  

The Forecast Method of Meteorological Degree Influencing the Occurrence of the Second Generation Larvae of Loxostege sticticalis L.——Taking Xing'an League as an Example

作　　者：唐红艳[1] 王惠贞[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2016年第7期163-166,169,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2012MS0609)

摘　　要：[目的]明确兴安盟草地螟2代幼虫的发生规律并建立2代幼虫与气象因子的预测模型。[方法]选取1980~2015年草地螟监测资料和同期气象资料,采用相关分析和典型年份对比分析法,研究影响草地螟2代幼虫发生的关键气象因子及气象指标,并采用气象因子加权方法建立2代幼虫发生的气象等级预报模型。[结果]影响草地螟2代幼虫发生的关键气象因子为温度、降雨量、相对湿度、降雨日数和高温日数。当1代成虫出现蛾峰后1~10 d平均气温22.0~24.0℃、降雨量30~100 mm、相对湿度60%~80%、降雨日数6~8d、无高温日数时,最适宜草地螟1代成虫产卵、孵化和2代幼虫发生;而1代成虫出现蛾峰后1~10 d持续低温多雨（高湿）或者高温少雨（低湿）天气会明显抑制草地螟1代成虫产卵和孵化,导致2代幼虫轻发生甚至不发生;模型检验结果表明,有草地螟1代成虫监测资料的8 a中,适宜发生（1级）和不适宜发生（3级）的回代结果与实际完全相符（占88%）,较适宜发生（2级）的回代结果与实际相差1个等级（占12%）,说明模型预报气象等级1级和3级效果较好。[结论]研究结果为开展草地螟2代幼虫气象预报提供了理论依据。[Objective] The aim was to determine the occurrence law of the second generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis L. in Xing＇an League and establish meteorological factors prediction model. [Method] On basis of the observational data of L. sticticalis. from 1980 to 2015 and contemporaneous meteorological data,the key meteorological factors and indexes influencing the occurrence of the second generation larvae of L. sticticalis were established by means of the correlation analysis and the typical year contrastive analysis. As well as,by means of the weighted method of meteorological factors,the prediction model of meteorological degree about the occurrence of the second generation larvae of L. sticticalis was built. [Result] The key meteorological factors included temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,rainy days and high temperature days. Firstly,for 1 to 10 days after moths peak of the first-generation adults appeared,the optimum conditions for spawning and hatching of adults and occurrence of the second generation larvae were mean temperature ranges from 22. 0 ℃ to 24. 0 ℃,precipitation ranges from 30 mm to100 mm,relative humidity ranges from 60% to 80% and rainy days from 6 to 8,yet,without high temperature days. Secondly,during the same period the continuous low temperature and more rain（ high humidity） weather or high temperature and less rain（ low humidity） weather could obviously inhibit the first-generation adults from spawning and hatching,it resulted in the light damage or the nonoccurrence of the second generation larvae of L. sticticalis. From the inspection for simulation,we found that in 8 years with the observational data of the first-generation adults,the part which the result of back substitution about suitable for happen（ level 1） or not suitable for happen（ level 3） were fully consistent with the actual situation had accounted to eighty eight percent. However the result of back substitution about the medium suitable for happen（ level 2）had the different of a degree

关 键 词：草地螟2代幼虫 气象等级模型 关键气象因子 气象指标 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学] S433.4[农业科学—畜牧学]