改革影响经济增长的机理、经验事实和情景预测  

Mechanism, empirical facts and scenarios forecast of the reform in key areas affecting economic growth

作　　者：郭春丽[1] 曾铮[1] 王蕴[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会经济研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《经济学家》2016年第5期45-58,共14页Economist

基　　金：国家发改委宏观经济研究院2015年度重点课题"重点领域改革的增长红利研究"(A2015011001)

摘　　要：在增长核算框架下,改革通过要素投入和TFP两条渠道,效率改善、技术提升和要素投入增加等三种效应促进经济增长。改革开放以来,财税、金融、土地、户籍等重点领域改革对经济增长做出了较大贡献,并呈现出改革对经济增长的贡献大于技术进步,改革所带来的效率提升效应大于要素增加效应,改革对资本积累的影响大于对劳动投入的影响等经验事实和典型特征。对"十三五"时期的预测表明,相对于没有落实十八届三中全会关于重点领域改革部署、经济增长只能保持6.36%的基准情景而言,全面和部分落实重点领域改革部署,经济有望分别保持7.39%和6.88%的年均增速。分领域看,推进财税体制改革红利最大,土地、户籍和国企改革红利次之,对外开放、金融和行政体制改革红利相对较小。应把握好改革红利释放规律、特征和变化趋势,更好发挥重点领域改革促进经济增长的作用。Under the framework of growth accounting, reform in key areas promotes economic growth by channels of inputs and TFP, and by effects of efficiency improvement, technology promotion and increase in factor input. Since the reform and open- ing up, reforms in key areas, such as public finance, finance, land and household registration system, have made great contribu- tion to economic growth. Reform made greater contribution than technology promotion to economic growth, and the effects of effi- ciency improvement brought by reform are greater than the effects of factor increasing. What＇ s more, reform＇ s influence on the capital accumulation was greater than labor input. Forecasting for the Thirteenth Five-Year Period shows that economic growth rate can only keep at 6.36% on average, while no implementation of the comprehensively deepening reform deployment was made by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist. In the scenarios of full and part implement- ing of the deepening reform, the potential economic growth rate will be at 7.39% and 6.88%. And the reform of the fiscal and tax- ation system can promote the largest growth dividend, followed by the reform of land, household registration system and state- owned enterprises, and that of the reform of opening-up, finance and administrative system is the smallest one. In order to pro- mote economic growth by reform, we should consider the facts, typical characteristics and trends of the growth dividend from re- form in key areas.

关 键 词：改革 增长红利 增长核算 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]