1951年-2014年重庆市主城区降水变化特征分析——以沙坪坝区为例  

The Characteristics of Variation in Precipitation in Chongqing Urban Area from 1951 to 2013——A Case Study of Shapingba District

作　　者：张晓惠[1] 谢世友[1,2] 任伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]西南大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第4期104-109,共6页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2011BAC09B01;2006BAC01A16);重庆市自然科学基金重点项目(CSTC2009BA0002);中央高校基本业务费专项资金(XDJK2015C006;SWU114058)

摘　　要：利用重庆市沙坪坝区1951年-2014年的月降水资料,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法对重庆市主城区降水的年度及季节变化趋势、突变及周期特征进行研究,研究表明：近64年来重庆市主城区年降水以及春、夏、冬季降水均呈不显著的增加趋势,秋季降水趋于减少;突变检验发现,年降水不存在突变,春季降水在1952年和1966年发生了突变,夏、冬季降水突变分别发生在1972年、1956年,秋季降水突变发生在1956年和1992年.此外,年降水量存在22~24a、4~5a的周期变化,春季降水变化周期为准23a、4~5a,夏季为16~18a,秋季为准18a,冬季降水则以12~14a、4~6a的周期变化为主.未来除秋季降水偏多外,重庆市主城区降水进入相对少雨期.Based on the monthly precipitation data from 1951 to 2013 observed at Chongqing Shapingba Na- tional Meteorological Station, the annual, seasonal and inter-annual variations of precipitation, and their trends, abrupt changes and periodic oscillations were analyzed with the methods of linear regression method, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results indicated that the annual, spring, summer, and winter precipitation in Chongqing urban area showed a weak increasing trend during the past 63 years while autumn precipitation was in a decreasing trend. According to the Mann-Kendall analysis, annual precipita- tion had no obvious sudden change. Abrupt changes of precipitation in spring appeared in 1952 and 1966, while that for autumn precipitation in 1956 and 1992. Summer and winter precipitation occurred once each, in 1972 and 1956, respectively. In the wavelet analysis, periodic oscillations were observed. The annual precipitation mainly fluctuated with the interval of 22--24 a and 4--5 a. while spring precipitation with 23a and 4-5 a, summer precipitation with 16-18 a, autumn precipitation with 18 a, and winter rainfall with 12-14 a and 4-6 a, suggesting that the precipitation in Chongqing urban area will be less in the next pe- riod according to the decadal feature and periodic signals.

关 键 词：MORLET小波分析 突变检验 降水 重庆 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]