2000～2010年威海城市土地利用变化及马尔科夫预测  

Analysis on Land Use and Land Cover Change( 2000～2010) and Prediction using Markov Chain Model in Weihai City in China

作　　者：赛莉莉 王涛 陈坤[1] 曲奕桦 何福红[1] 

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学资源与环境工程学院,山东烟台264039 [2]烟台市规划设计研究院有限公司,山东烟台264600

出　　处：《鲁东大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第2期162-167,共6页Journal of Ludong University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41471223);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2014JL026);山东省高等学校科技计划项目(J15LH51);烟台市科技计划项目(2015ZH091)

摘　　要：以威海市区为研究区，以Landsat TM为数据源，采用土地利用动态度、土地利用综合程度、土地利用转换模型等三个指标定量分析2000～2010年间威海市区土地利用／土地覆被变化（LUCC）的时空特征，并构建马尔可夫预测模型对2020年土地利用状况进行预测．结果表明：（1）过去10a间，威海市区土地利用变化特点为城市化过程显著，非建设用地结构变化明显，绿地大为增加的总体特征；威海市区的土地利用变化正处于发展期；LUCC空间分异特征明显：建设用地的增加主要分布于温泉镇和双岛港区；水域的减少区域主要分布于双岛港区；城市绿地增加区域位于双岛港区；（2）同2010年相比，马尔可夫预测2020年耕地面积减少17．72％，变化幅度较大；林地和建设用地面积分别增加8．93％和10．68％；水域和未利用土地面积的面积变化不大．Taking Weihai City as the study area, using Landsat TM images as the data source, the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and land cover change between 2000 and 2010 were quantitative analysis based on three indexes such as land use dynamic degree, land use integrated degree, and land use conversion model, and a Markov model was constructed to predict the land use type in 2020. The results showed that： （ 1 ） Land use change of Weihai city is characterized by the significant urbanization process, the obvious change of non-construction land structure and a large increase in green. Land-use change of Weihai city is in develop- ment. LUCC shows obvious spatial heterogeneity, with the increased construction land mainly in the spa town and two-island harbor, the reducied regional waters mainly in the two-island port area and the increased urban green area located in two-island harbor. （2）Compared with 2010, the cultivated land area will be reduced by 17.72% in 2020 ,a larger extent;Forest land and construction land area will be increased by 8.93% and 8. 93% respectively; Water and unused land area will change little.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 马尔科夫预测 威海市 

分 类 号：S301.24[农业科学—农艺学]