浙江省水资源政策对经济影响的模拟分析——基于CGE模型  

Simulation and Analysis of the Impact of Water Resources Policy on Economy in Zhejiang Province— Based on CGE Model

作　　者：张宁[1] 时宁宁[1] 卢靖[1] 刘聪[2] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2016年第5期26-32,共7页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71203053);浙江省软科学研究计划项目(2016C25049);浙江省社会科学规划人才项目(11ZJQN002YB)

摘　　要：重视水安全新常态是事关民生福祉和经济转型升级的重要举措,为盘活水资源的有效利用与管理,确保地区经济社会的健康发展,文章运用可计算的一般均衡模型,以浙江省为例,对工农业供水量、用水效率以及用水结构等水资源政策变化对地区经济的影响进行了情景模拟。结果显示:提高工农业水资源利用率可以进一步提高地区经济水平,缓解水资源短缺压力,同时也是增加社会福利的最优策略,有助于推动现代智能工农业的发展;合理调整用水结构,实现水资源行业外分配是提高经济水平的次优策略,但短时期内会造成水资源使用量小幅增长;控制工农业供水量是促进地区经济转型升级的可行策略,虽然在一定程度上会削弱地方经济实力,但切实可以打造地区生态文明新常态。To pay close attention to a new nornal of water safety is an important measure for people＇ s welfare and economic transformation and upgrading. In order to make an effective use of water resources and management as well as ensure the healthy development of regional economy and society, the paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to carry out a scenario simulation of the impact of water resources policy change on regional economy in Zhejiang province, such as water use efficiency and water use structure. The results show that： Enhancing the industrial and agricultural water use efficiency is the optimal strategy to further improve regional economic level, to alleviate water shortages pressure, to increase social welfare, and to help promote the development of modern intelligent industry and agriculture ; The suboptimal strategy is a reasonable adjustment of water structure to achieve water reallocation outside the industry, which can improve economic level, but in the short term it will result in a slight increase in the use of water resources ; Reducing industrial and agricultural water supply is a viable strategy to promote regional economic transformation and upgrading, which can create a new normal of regional ecological civilization ＇although it weakens regional economic strength to some extent.

关 键 词：CGE模型 水资源政策 地区经济 模拟分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F062.1