新常态下中国宏观经济稳定与财政政策取向——基于新凯恩斯主义经济模型的理论释义  

China's Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Policy Orientation under a New Normal— Theoretic Interpretation Based on New Keynesian Economic Model

作　　者：丁志帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学经济学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2016年第5期44-51,共8页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CJL019)

摘　　要：文章根据动态随机一般均衡模型和中国宏观季度数据,考察了财政支出和税收工具的宏观经济效应。研究发现:增加政府支出虽然能够迅速提振经济,但其只有短期效应。如果没有及时退出,其正向促进作用可能转化为反作用力。减税政策对产出和就业同样具有正向促进作用,但政策效果相对较弱。为保障新常态下的中国经济运行于合理区间,应当合理配置财政政策工具,将相机调控和区间调控相结合,短期与中长期调控相结合。Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and China＇s maeroeconomie quarterly data, this paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of government expenditure and tax instruments. The study finds that increasing govern- ment expenditure can boost economy quickly, but only in a short period. If the expansionary policy does not quit in time, its positive promoting role may be converted to a counterforce. Moreover, tax cut policy also has a positive role in promoting out- put and expanding employment, but the policy effect is not as significant as government expenditure change. To ensure China＇ s economy operates within a rational range under a new normal, we should not only allocate fiscal policy instruments rational- ly, but also realize the combination of discretion and interval management, the short-term and long-term regulation.

关 键 词：新常态 政府支出 税收 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济] F812.0