基于马尔科夫转移矩阵的南水北调中线水源区土地类型变化分析  

Analysis on Changes of Land Use Structure in Water Source Area of Middle Route of South to North Water Diversion Project Based on Markov Transfer Matrix

作　　者：朱九龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中原工学院经济管理学院,河南郑州450007

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2016年第2期171-175,共5页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于演化博弈的跨流域调水工程水源区生态补偿关键问题研究:以南水北调中线工程为例"(U1204709);"矿产资源开发区生态安全评价及预警研究:以河南省义马煤矿为例"(71103213);"跨流域调水工程突发事件演化机理及动态协同管理机制研究:以南水北调中线工程为例"(U1304702);教育部人文社科基金项目(14YJA630060);河南省青年骨干教师资助计划项目(2013GGJS-119);河南省社科规划基金项目(2015BJJ062)

摘　　要：[目的]揭示南水北调中线水源区土地利用结构变化特征,为区域土地规划提供依据。[方法]根据土地利用现状调查数据及影像资料,测算水源区土地利用结构熵、均衡度和优势度,并利用马尔科夫转移矩阵求解各种类型土地间的数量转换关系。[结果](1)水源区土地类型转化主要发生在耕地、林地和草地之间;(2)2010年以前,水源区土地利用结构稳定性较高,2010年以后,由于丹江口水库蓄水而导致水源区土地利用结构波动性较大。[结论]水源区各种类型的土地面积不断变化,在2008—2010年土地结构较为稳定,2010—2013年土地结构和稳定性出现了波动。[Objective]The characteristics of land use structure in the middle route of the south to north water transfer project was demonstrated to provide the basis for the regional land planning.[Methods]Data was collected by surveying of land use status of water source area and eliciting from image.The entropy,equilibrium degree and dominance degree were measured.The conversional quantity relationship was calculated by Markoff transfer matrix.[Results]Land type conversion mainly occurred among farmland,woodland and grassland.Land use structure of water source area was relatively stable before 2010.However,it had become unstable after 2010 because Danjiangkou reservoir began work from then on.[Conclusion]The land area of various types of water source area was constantly changing.Land structure was comparatively stable in 2008—2010,land structure and stability fluctuated in 2010—2013.

关 键 词：土地类型 水源区 结构特征 南水北调中线工程 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]