应用新媒体技术估计男男性行为者人群规模的初步研究  

Size estimation of MSM population based on new media technology

作　　者：宋炜路[1] 徐杰[1] 陈涛 江震[1] 刘伟 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京100226 [2]伊犁哈萨克自治州疾病预防控制中心,新疆伊犁835000

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2016年第4期257-259,共3页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

摘　　要：目的探讨运用新媒体技术,对伊宁市男男性行为者（MSM）的规模进行估计,为艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法利用同志交友软件获取在伊宁市内的MSM的信息,于2014年4-5月,对登陆伊宁市同志QQ交友群和Blued男同交友软件的MSM展开计数,5天后重复此过程,通过比对登录名和注册信息,确定两次计数均被计入的MSM,采用捕获-再捕获法计算MSM人群规模和MSM活跃人群数。结果伊宁市当地MSM人群规模约为490人[95%可信区间（CI）∶440-540],QQ群内的活跃MSM数约为110人（95%CI∶60-160）;平均年龄为25.5岁,其中18-25岁年龄组和26-35岁年龄组人数在所有样本中的比例分别为44.4%和36.8%。性角色为0.5（肛交插入和被插入均可者）的比例为47.2%。结论该技术为应用捕获-再捕获方法估计MSM基数提供了新的手段,同时也提示在网络信息化时代,新媒体技术在艾滋病防治工作中的作用值得更进一步研究。Objective To estimate population size of men who have sex with men（MSM）in Yining city by using new media technology.Methods MSM basic information was collected through the gay dating software.During April-May,2014,a number of MSM who logged in the software was counted and the counting was made again after 5days,so as to determine the number of MSM counted twice by comparing a login and registration information of MSM in the two captures.Capture-mark-recapture（CMR）method was used to calculate the MSM population size.Results The MSM population size was estimated as 490（95%CI∶440- 540）through the CMR method.The active MSM population in QQ software was about 110（95%CI∶60-160）.The average age of all subjects was 25.5years,with 18-25group and 26-35group accounting for 44.4%and 36.8% respectively.The proportion of a versatile role of sex position was 47.2%.Conclusion New media technology provides another approach to estimate MSM population size by using CMR method.It is worth considering to carry out more studies on roles of new media technology in HIV/AIDS program in the future.

关 键 词：男男性行为者 人群规模估计 新媒体技术 捕获-再捕获法 交友软件 

分 类 号：R373.9[医药卫生—病原生物学]