天津生活垃圾分类预测方法研究与资源化分析  

Classification Prediction Method and Recycling Analysis of Tianjin Municipal Solid Waste

作　　者：文科军[1] 马超[1] 吴丽萍[1] 张衍杰[1] 张振宇 

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学,天津300384 [2]博天环境集团股份有限公司,天津300021

出　　处：《天津城建大学学报》2016年第2期126-133,共8页Journal of Tianjin Chengjian University

基　　金：天津市科技计划项目(12ZCZDSF01900);天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(08ZCGYSF02500)

摘　　要：为最大限度资源化利用天津生活垃圾,通过影响因子与模型遴选,用回归模型预测各年分类量和产量,并评估其资源化价值.预计2013—2022年间垃圾量年均增长3.68%,,其中灰土所占比例在逐年下降,塑料、纸类、织物、厨余和金属所占比例在上升,其产生的资源化价值每年可达63.10~94.32亿元,尤其前4项的潜在价值最高,在产生61.57~89.06亿元再生产品的同时,每年使垃圾总量减量化达95.55%,.To maximize the utilization of municipal solid waste in Tianjin,this paper uses the regression model to predict the amount of waste classification and production each year and evaluates its recycling value through impact factor and model selection.It is expected that municipal solid waste grows by an average of 3.68%, each year from 2013 to 2022.The proportion of lime soil declines year by year.The proportion of plastic,paper,fabric,kitchen and metal wastes is on the rise.The recycling value of municipal solid waste each year can reach 6.310~9.432 billion CNY,especially the plastic,paper,fabric and kitchen waste items,which have the highest potential value.The recycled product has the value of 6.157~8.906 billion CNY,with the total waste reduction rate of 95.55%, a year at the same time.

关 键 词：环境科学 生活垃圾 资源化价值 分类预测 

分 类 号：X799.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]