浙江62个丘陵山区县引发滑坡的降雨强度——历时阈值  

Rainfall Intensity-Duration Thresholds for the Initiation of Landslides in 62 Hilly and Mountainous Counties of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：鲍其云 麻土华[2] 李长江[2] 王保欣[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省地质矿产研究所,杭州310007 [2]浙江省国土资源厅信息中心,杭州310007 [3]浙江省水文地质工程地质大队,浙江宁波315000

出　　处：《科技通报》2016年第5期48-55,95,共9页Bulletin of Science and Technology

摘　　要：浙江是中国降雨型滑坡(包括降雨引发的滑坡和泥石流)最频发的地区之一。对降雨-滑坡关系的研究是对降雨型滑坡进行预报的一个关键性基础。本文通过对浙江地区在1990至2013年间发生的有日期和位置(坐标)记录的1467个滑坡和125个泥石流以及2457个雨量站记录的雨量数据的分析,确定了浙江62个丘陵山区县(市、区)引发滑坡和泥石流的降雨强度(I)-历时(D)阈值。在上述工作基础上,提出基于降雨强度-历时阈值和滑坡泥石流易发程度区划图的预报系统模型。Zhejiang Province is one of regions that are the most prone to rainfall-triggered landslides inChina owing to its geologic, geomorphologic, and climatic settings. The types of landslides in the regionmainly belong to shallow slides and debris flows that are triggered by rainfall. Determining rainfallthresholds for rainfall-induced shallow slope failures is essential for forecasting this kind of landslidedisasters. In this study, based on the 1467 shallow slides and 125 debris flows that occurred during the1990 – 2013 period in the Zhejiang region and have determined information on the locations, dates（times） of this type of slope failures, and rainfall events that can be correlated with the slope failures, wedefined rainfall intensity– duration thresholds for the initiation of this kind of landslides in the regionand its 62 sub regions. We also proposed an operating procedure of landslide warning system based onrainfall thresholds and landslide susceptibility maps.

关 键 词：滑坡和泥石流 降雨阈值 预警预报系统 浙江 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]