确定海湾填海优化岸线的综合方法  

Harmonized approach for determination of post-reclamation coastline

作　　者：秦华鹏[1] 倪晋仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境工程系

出　　处：《水利学报》2002年第8期35-42,共8页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会和水利部联合资助项目 (5 9890 2 0 0 )

摘　　要：填海工程对区域生态环境有多方面的影响 ,需要在新岸线确定时采用综合模型来全面评价各种影响并协调多个目标的需要。本文以深圳湾为例 ,提出了一种确定海湾填海优化岸线的综合方法。通过分析填海工程的主要影响及控制指标 ,建立了它们之间的层次关系 ;利用各种数学模型 (如水动力学模型、泥沙模型和水质模型等 )定量描述了各种填海岸线方案对应的海湾潮流运动、泥沙冲淤以及污染物迁移规律 ;根据生态系统与潮流运动和泥沙冲淤的定性关系 ,间接评价了填海对生态的影响。在此基础上 ,采用层次分析法确定了各种主要影响及控制指标的权重 ,通过综合集成模型的预测结果评判了各种填海岸线的优劣 ,最后对权重和模型计算误差的影响进行了敏感性分析。The reclamation of bay always results in multiple ecological impacts on regional environment. The approach proposed in this paper is used to optimize the post reclamation coastline. It harmonizes the requirements of various issues and takes different potential impacts into account. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is applied to consider the characteristics at different level, i.e.,the integral level for optimal post reclamation coastline, the issue level for concerned aspects and the factor level for specific indexes determined from modeling result. Various mathematical models such as hydrodynamic, sediment transport and water quality models are employed to predict the reclamation impacts. The predicted results include tidal flow induced circulation, sediment erosion and deposition, pollutant transport characteristics under different scenarios. Ecological impact is considered indirectly in terms of its qualitative relationship to tidal characteristics and sediment erosion and deposition. The harmonized optimal coastline is determined by ranking the overall marks of integrated impacts under different options. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the effect on the final results of uncertainty in the weights assigned and the errors of numerical models to enhance the reliability of decision making. The approach is convenient in considering the complicated impacts of coastal reclamation project and meeting the requirements of multifold objects.

关 键 词：填海工程 岸线优化 综合模型 层次分析法 深圳湾 

分 类 号：P748[天文地球—海洋科学] S289[农业科学—农业水土工程]