多变量自回归模型在三江平原井灌水稻需水量预测中的应用  

Application of multi-variate auto-regression model to forecast water demand of well irrigated paddy

作　　者：付强[1] 王志良[1] 梁川[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水电学院,成都市610065

出　　处：《水利学报》2002年第8期107-112,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金;四川大学青年基金资助 (4 3 2 0 2 8)

摘　　要：应用多变量自回归模型ARV (n) ,利用三江平原腹地———富锦市 1985～ 1999年气象资料 ,按水稻生育期划分 6个生育阶段 ,建立了井灌水稻生育期内需水量预测模型。经模型拟合与预测 ,效果良好 ,可以为该地区开展节水灌溉、灌溉用水管理、合理开发利用地下水资源 。The models for forecasting water demand of paddy irrigated by well in different period of growth is established according to the meteorological data recorded in 1985-1999.The growth period is divided into 6 stages and the multi variate auto regression model is applied to the establishment of the forecasting model.The effectiveness of the model is verified by the measured data.

关 键 词：多变量自回归模型 三江平原 井灌水稻 需水量 预测 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学]