基于灰色马尔可夫模型的钱塘江高潮位预测  

Prediction on Qiantang River's High Tidal Level Based on Grey Markov Model

作　　者：王瑞荣[1] 陈浩龙[1] 薛楚[1] 孙映宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学生命信息与仪器工程学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]杭州市水文水资源监测总站,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第2期57-61,共5页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61374005);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LY14F030022)

摘　　要：钱塘江高潮位符合海潮变化规律的同时,更容易受到水文、气象等因素影响.针对潮位预报难、预报精度低的问题,通过对2001—2010年钱塘江历史高潮位数据的分析和研究,将灰色系统理论与马尔可夫链结合,建立了灰色马尔可夫潮位残差修正预测模型.利用灰色预测模型对未来的潮位进行预测,并对预测结果用马尔可夫链进行修正,以提高预测精度.该模型预测了钱塘江盐官水文站2011—2012年农历八月十八的高潮位,并与实测高潮位数据和现用的预报方法进行对比,验证了灰色马尔可夫模型在钱塘江高潮位预测中具有较高的精度.The tidal level of Qiantang River has the same feature as the tidal level of ocean,but the former is more easily affected by hydrology and meteorology.To deal with difficulty and low accuracy in prediction of the tidal level of river,according to the study and analysis of hydrological data of Qiantang River from 2001 to 2010,with low accuracy using GM（1,1）model to the high tidal level,grey-Markov model is established to predict the Qiantang River＇s tidal level by combining the grey model with Markov chain.In order to improve the accuracy,the grey model predicts the tidal level,and the prediction results are corrected by Markov chain.The model predicts the high tidal level of august eighteenth of Lunar calendar and tendency of a month in YanGuan hydrographic station from2011—2012.Based on the practical prediction,the prediction accuracy of this model is significantly higher than that of grey prediction model and prediction method of using.

关 键 词：灰色系统 马尔可夫链 灰色马尔可夫模型 潮位预测 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]