风险信号分析视角下的“黄岩岛模式”解读  

Huangyan Model Based-on Risk Signal Analysis

作　　者：宋继伟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心,江苏南京210093 [2]南京大学信息管理学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第2期76-80,91,共5页Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CTQ013);国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA078)

摘　　要：当前我国在南海方向面临来自周边声索国及域外大国多方面的重大国家战略安全挑战,处理失当将导致政治、外交等风险事件的发生。因此,在战略决策及战略利益的考量中,需要重视相关行为主体的口头或实质行动。2012年中菲黄岩岛事件开创了中国南海维权的新形势,中国改变了20多年来单方面恪守《南海各方行为宣言》的做法,采取了"行政执法主导、外交手段辅助、经济手段策应、军事手段后援、国内民意支撑"的系列维权措施,形成"黄岩岛模式"。选取《人民日报》《参考消息》《人民网》等网络媒体数据,借助事件数据分析、知识图谱、社会网络分析等国际政治、情报学领域的分析方法,对"黄岩岛模式"形成过程中的弱信号进行扫描、探测和解读,以期为我国南海维权斗争提供参考。The South China Sea issue is a major national strategic security issue which currently poses challenge to China. Any verbal or real action from neighboring countriesmay have impact on China's strategic interests and strategic decision-making. If China fails to properly handle the issue,any action may lead to political and diplomatic risks.Therefore,it is necessary for China to pay attention to the actions of behavior subjects concerned. In 2012,China changed its traditional behavior of unilateral keeping the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea( DOC) and took the following measures in keeping the sovereign over the South China Sea: leading by administrative enforcement of law, supplementing by diplomatic means, coordinating by economic means,backing by military means and supporting by public opinion, which forms Huanyan Model. Based on the analysis approaches such as Event Data Analysis,Knowledge Mapping and Fragmental Information Analysis and Social Network Analysis, this paper uses People's Daily,Reference News,People's Daily Online and other information sources to monitor and interpret the conflict risk signals of Huangyan Model.

关 键 词：南海冲突 黄岩岛事件 黄岩岛模式 风险信号分析 

分 类 号：D823[政治法律—政治学]