致密储层油气产量与储量预测方法的适用性  

APPLICABILITY OF THE PREDICTING METHOD FOR THE OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION AND THEIR RESERVES IN THE TIGHT RESERVOIRS

作　　者：张君峰 毕海滨[2] 许浩[3] 赵俊龙[3] 赵达[3] 耿昀光 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探与生产分公司,北京100007 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [3]中国地质大学能源学院,北京100083

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2016年第3期151-158,共8页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(40802027);中国石油股份有限公司风险创新基金项目(0706d01040102)资助

摘　　要：致密油气储层产量和储量的预测是油藏工程的重要组成部分,更是致密油气田开发效果评价的关键指标。基于致密油气储层普遍具有低渗—特低渗特征,对比分析了伸展指数产量递减法(SEPD法)、适用于裂缝性储层的Duong产量递减法(Duong法)及改进的SEPD法(YM-SEPD法)等三种经验预测方法的适用性。结果表明:原始储层渗透率的大小,生产时间段的选取以及边界效应和经济采出速度的相对关系对预测精度具有重要作用;当渗透率高于10^(-6)μm^2时利用YM-SEPD方法预测比较准确,当渗透率低于10^(-6)μm^2时利用SEPD法和Duong法预测比较准确;使用的生产数据生产时间越长、数据越多,相对误差越小,但是第一年的数据包括在内时,容易低估产量;生产时间少于两年时,综合使用YM-SEPD法和Duong法可以得到保守而可信的结果;边界效应出现后,利用双曲递减法预测较其他方法更为简便。The predictions of the production and reserves of tight oil and gas reservoirs are the important part of the reservoir engineering,and moreover they are also one of the key evaluating indexes of the tight oil and gas field development effects.On the basis of the universal low or extra-low permeability characteristics for the reservoirs,the applicabilities of the following three predicting methods:Stretched Exponential Production Decline( SEPD),Duong's Rate Decline for the fractured reservoir and modified SEPD( YM-SEPD) are contrasted and analyzed.The achievements show that the magnitude order of the in-situ reservoir permeabilities,selection of the production or operation time intervals and relative relationships between the boundary effects and economic recovery speed have great effects on the predicted precisions.For the high-permeability( > 10^(-6)μm^2) reservoirs,YM-SEPD method is the better choice,while SEPD method or Duong method is more appreciated to predict for the reservoirs with thelower permeability( < 10^(-6)μm^2).The longer and more the production data used,the smaller the relative error will be.But the adopted first year data is prone to under-estimate the production;moreover,the more reliable production forecasts can be obtained by YM-SEPD and Duong methods comprehensively if the production time is less than two years;after the boundary effects occur,hyperbolic decline predicting method can be more convenient and advantageous than the others.

关 键 词：预测模型 适用性 产量 储量 渗透率 致密油气 

分 类 号：TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]