0801号台风“浣熊”(Noguri)特征分析及预报效果检验  

Characteristics Analysis and NWP Forecast Evaluation of Typhoon Noguri(0801)

作　　者：谭燕 许晓林[1] 张维[1] 余晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所中国气象局上海台风预报技术重点实验室,上海200030

出　　处：《大气科学研究与应用》2010年第1期32-46,共15页Atmospheric Science Research and Application

摘　　要：本文应用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)逐日4次的经纬网格(分辨率1°×1°)再分析资料对0801号台风"浣熊"的移动路径、强度进行分析。结果表明,台风"浣熊"的移动路径与西北太平洋副热带高压位置的变化有关;此外,台风"浣熊"发展过程中强度变化不仅与其自身结构及环境流场和下垫面的影响相关,还与其尺度大小有关。2008年4月西北太平洋副高脊线异常偏北,及前期的LaNina使南海海表温度异常偏高是导致"浣熊"生成、发展的主要原因。对1884年至今登陆我国的台风资料的分析表明,"浣熊"创下我国初台日的百年最早记录。对各业务预报中心的实时综合预报和数值预报结果检验表明,路径预报基本一致,登陆点都集中在海南岛东南沿海。综合预报中,美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)的预报准确率最高;在客观预报方法中,上海台风模式的预报误差最小。现阶段统计方法依然是台风强度预报的主流方法;对台风强度的数值预报结果进行订正也是一种有效的尝试,有待进一步应用研究。Based on the 1°×1°NCEP reanalysis data,the moving track and intensity of Typhoon Noguri(0801)are analyzed.The results indicate that the moving track of Noguri had a close relation with subtropical high.The intensity change was not only related to the intensity itself,but also to the typhoon scale.The abnormal northward ridge line of the subtropical high and the abnormal high SST in the South China Sea which was caused by a former La Nina event were main reasons for the creation and development of the typhoon Noguri.The Typhoon landfall data in China since 1884 have approved that Noguri made a record-breaking of the earliest landfall typhoon in China.Real-time subjective and objective forecasts of Noguri nearly have the same forecast biases.JTWC and Shanghai Typhoon Model performed much better than other methods in the subjective and objective forecasts,respectively.Statistic forecast is still the most effective method for the typhoon intensity forecast,while correction on the NWP model output is also a necessary try which need some further research.

关 键 词：台风路径 强度 诊断分析 数值预报检验 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]