国际大宗商品价格波动、投资驱动、货币供给与PPI低迷——基于TVP-VAR-SV模型的动态分析  

Research on International Commodity Price Fluctuations,Investment Driving Factors,Money Supply and PPI Downturn——Dynamic Analysis Based on TVP-VAR-SV Model

作　　者：龙少波[1] 胡国良[2] 王继源[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学公共管理学院公共经济系 [2]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2016年第5期3-14,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目"新常态下价格调控问题研究"(0903005203306);中央高校基本科研业务费科研项目"国内外能源价格对中国一般价格水平的传导及反向倒逼机制研究"(106112016CDJSK01JD05)的资助

摘　　要：2012年2月以来,我国PPI处于负增长区间运行的态势已经长达40多个月,说明我国生产领域已在较长时间内处于通缩的状况。为了对比和分析造成此轮我国PPI持续低迷的原因,我们使用TVP-VAR-SV模型进行了实证研究。研究结果发现,国际大宗商品价格持续下跌是2012年以来PPI低迷的最为重要的因素,并已经影响到了生产企业的盈利状况;在我国长期产能过剩背景下,投资需求下降对PPI的下跌有重要影响;货币供给收缩也对PPI的走软有一定的影响。在经济新常态下,我们需要适当地加大结构性投资的力度,扩大需求以应对PPI的持续下跌。China＇s PPI has been in the negative growth zone for more than 40 months since September 2012, which means that the production field has been suffering deflation for a long time. In order to compare and analyze the causes of the continued PPI downturn in China, we use the TVP-VAR-SV model to carry out the empirical research. It is found that the continuous decline of the international commodity prices has been the most important factor for PPI downturn since 2012, and it has affected the profitability of enterprises; the decline in investment demand against the background of long-term overcapacity in our country, also has an important impact on the decline of PPI; and monetary contraction has also bad a certain impact on PPI. With China＇s economic New Normal, we need to increase the intensity of struetural investment and expand demand to cope with the continued decline of PPI.

关 键 词：PPI低迷 投资驱动 货币供给 国际大宗商品价格 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]