基于土地利用变化的松原市生态系统服务价值预测  

Ecosystem Services Value Forecast in Songyuan City based on Land Use Change

作　　者：张爽[1] 杜会石[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《湖南农业科学》2016年第4期48-52,共5页Hunan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：吉林省省级经济结构战略调整引导资金(2015Y081)

摘　　要：以典型农牧交错区的吉林西部松原市为研究区,利用2000、2010、2015年TM/OLI遥感影像,解译得到研究区3期土地利用变化信息图谱,运用GIS空间分析和数值统计分析方法研究该区土地利用变化情况,对2020年土地利用信息进行预测,并由此评估该区未来生态系统服务价值变化特征。结果表明:近15 a,松原市地区水田面积增加最多,年均8.41%;生态系统服务价值增加33.86×108元。模拟预测结果为,到2020年,松原市土地利用类型的旱田、水田、水域、湿地和建筑用地面积呈增加趋势,其中旱田面积增加最多,达49 596.37 hm2;林地、草地和未利用地面积呈减少趋势;生态系统服务价值增加不显著,由2010年的357.14×108元增加到2020年的362.36×108元,年均增长率为0.1%;精度检验及敏感性分析表明,研究结果可信。Choosing Songyuan, the typical farming-pastoral area in the west of Jilin province as study area, using artificial visual interpretation method, determined the transfer of land use types during 2000 to 2015 by spatial analysis and statistical analysis and predicted the land use situation in 2020 through the CA-Markov model based on 2000, 2010 and 2015 TM/OLI remote sensing image, then estimated the future ecosystem service value of study area referring to the revised Chinese terrestrial ecosystem service value per unit area of the table. The results show that, the wet area increased the most, 8.41% per year in recent 15 years; ecosystem service value increased $33.86×108 yuan. Songyuan land use types will undergo significant changes by 2020. Dry land, paddy fields, wetlands and construction land area showed an increasing trend, especially the dry land increases 49 596.37 hm2. On the contrary, woodland, grassland and unused land area showed a decreasing trend; Little change in the value of ecosystem services by 2010 increase $ 357.14×108 to 2020 of $ 362.36×108 yuan, an average annual reduction rate of 0.1%. The research results should be trusted since the accuracy testing and sensitivity analysis, which not only provides methods for the value of ecosystem services estimation, also has a great significance to the regional sustainable development.

关 键 词：生态系统服务价值 预测 CA-Markov 松原市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] TP208[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]