中国资本账户开放与人民币国际化的关系研究——基于国际经验比较的影响因素分析  

A Research on the Relationship of China's Capital Account Liberalization and Internationalization of RMB ——The Comparative Analysis of Influence Factors Based on International Experience

作　　者：邵路遥[1] 刘尧成[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学商学院,215021

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2016年第3期37-43,共7页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目<国际量化宽松冲击对中国经济的动态影响与应对策略研究>(批准号:13CJL030);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题<中国国际收支失衡的可持续性与最优对策组合研究>(批准号:2012EJL001)

摘　　要：当前人民币国际化处于关键时机,而这也是中国资本账户开放的重要环节。该文运用面板数据模型对美国、英国、日本和瑞士四个重要的国际货币国家1995—2013年的数据进行实证分析,试图对当前的中国资本账户开放和人民币国际化提供国际经验。分析发现:首先,稳定的宏观经济状态是资本账户开放的坚实基础;其次,货币币值的提升,有助于增强货币的国际化地位;再次,资本账户开放过程中要逐步放开对于直接投资流入的管制,对于直接投资流出管制放开的同时要注重监管;最后,证券组合股权的流入、金融市场对内对外的全面开放、金融深化的推进,都能够提升货币国际化的进程。基于上面的结论,我们也提出了一些相关的政策建议。Recently,the internationalization of RMB comes to a critical point,which is also very important to China＇s capital account liberalization.In this paper,we uses the panel data model to analyze the data of the United States,Britain,Japan and Switzerland during 1995to2013.We get the following conclusions：firstly,the stability of macro economy is the foundation of the capital account liberalization; secondly, currency appreciation is helpful to its internalizations;thirdly,special attention should be paid to the direct capital inflows during in the process of account liberalization regulation.Finally,the security portfolio equity inflows,the financial market liberalization and financial deepening can also help to promote the process of currency internationalization.Based on these conclusions,we also put forward some relevant policy recommendations.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 人民币国际化 国际经验 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]