产能约束下国内需求对工业制成品出口的非线性影响  

The Nonlinear Impact of Domestic Demand on Export of Industrial Manufactured Goods under Production Capacity Constraints

作　　者：韩国高[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学投资工程管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2016年第4期56-63,共8页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"产能波动与库存调整的经济效应:一般均衡分析与非线性传导"(71403043);教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目"外部冲击;结构失衡与我国制造业产能过剩问题:形成;影响及对策研究"(13YJC790036);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目"我国新一轮去产能的短期经济风险与长期经济效果研究"(2014T70259);中国博士后科学基金一等资助项目"基于外部冲击和政策调整的工业产能过剩波动及对策研究"(2013M540230);辽宁省教育厅科学研究一般项目"我国新一轮去产能的经济效应及对策研究"(W2014207)资助

摘　　要：基于2000年第1季度至2014年第3季度的样本数据,本文利用非线性的平滑转换模型考察了产能约束作用下国内需求波动对我国工业制成品出口的影响。研究发现,国内需求波动对工业制成品出口具有非线性效应,即国内需求波动对工业制成品出口的冲击是不对称的。当我国经济增长趋缓,工业产能利用水平低于门限值时,国内需求波动对工业制成品出口具有负向影响,二者之间表现为替代关系;当经济形势向好,工业产能利用水平高于门限值时,国内需求波动对工业制成品出口具有正向影响,二者之间表现为互补关系;当工业产能利用水平处于门限值附近时,国内需求波动对工业制成品出口的影响将在两个机制之间平滑转换。Based on the sample data from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2014,this paper examines the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods under production capacity constraints in China with nonlinear smoothing transition model. The study finds that the domestic demand fluctuation has a nonlinear effect on the export of industrial manufactures goods,that is,the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods is asymmetric. When China＇s economic growth slows and the industrial production capacity utilization level is lower than the threshold value,the domestic demand fluctuation has a negative impact on the export of manufactured goods and these two variables show alternative relations. And when the economic situation is good and the industrial production capacity utilization level is higher than the threshold value,the domestic demand fluctuation has a positive impact on the export of manufactured goods and these two variables show complementary relations. When the industrial production capacity utilization level is near threshold value,the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods will switch smoothly between the two mechanisms.

关 键 词：工业制成品出口 国内需求 产能约束 非线性STR模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]