中国人口实际与理想的生育年龄:1994—201  

The Actual and Ideal Fertility Age of Chinese Population:1994—2012

作　　者：张银锋[1] 侯佳伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津社会科学院社会治理与公共政策研究中心社会学研究所,天津300191 [2]中央财经大学社会学系,北京100081

出　　处：《人口与发展》2016年第2期2-11,共10页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社科基金(编号:15CRK008);北京青年英才计划(项目号:YETP0975);天津社会科学院院重点课题(项目号:16YZD-05);中央财经大学社会发展学院学科推进计划支持

摘　　要：人们的生育行为总是与年龄及时间因素存在着特定联系。借助横断历史元分析方法对相关文献进行了梳理、分析,并结合国家统计局公布的数据,拟合出1994—2012年中国人口实际和理想生育年龄关系变化趋势。研究发现:实际生育年龄呈现显著增长趋势,初育年龄从1995年的23.49岁上升到2012年的25.78岁,再育年龄从26.73岁上升到29.61岁;理想生育年龄相对较为稳定,理想初育年龄保持在25.30岁左右,理想再育年龄维持在28.40岁左右,平均理想二胎间隔为3.10年;城市人口无论是初育年龄还是再育年龄,均是实际生育年龄显著大于理想生育年龄;农村人口实际初育年龄显著小于理想初育年龄,再育年龄经历了由"实际小于理想"到"实际大于理想"的转变。这些发现为认识生育意愿和生育水平在中国的变化趋势提供了有效的实证依据。There is always a specific relation between the people’s fertility behavior and age along with time factor. On the basis of generalizing and analyzing relevant literature through cross-temporal meta- analysis,this study has fitted changing trend of relation between actual and ideal fertility age of Chinese population from 1994 to 2012. There were some new findings. At first,the actual fertility age showed a significant growth trend. The average age of first birth has increased from 23. 49 in 1995 to 25. 78 in 2012,and the average age of second birth has risen from 26. 73 to 29. 61 years old. Secondly,ideal fertility age kept relatively stable. The ideal age of first birth has remained at about the age of 25. 30,then the ideal age of second birth maintained at around the age of 28. 40. There was an interval of 3. 10 years between the former and the latter. Thirdly,as for the urban population,their actual age was significantly higher than ideal age both in the first and second time of giving birth. The fourth,the rural population’s actual age was significantly less than ideal age in the first time of giving birth. On the other hand,their second time of giving birth had experienced a transformation from ＂actual less than ideal＂to＂actual more than ideal＂. These findings provided effective empirical evidence for understanding of changing trend of fertility and fertility levels in China.

关 键 词：生育时间 实际生育年龄 理想生育年龄 初育 再育 二胎间隔 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]