输电线路污闪跳闸概率计算方法  

A Calculation Method for Pollution Flashover Probability of Transmission Lines Trip

作　　者：王忠岳[1] 林济铿[1] 胡世骏[2] 刘辉[2] 叶剑华[3] 魏文辉 林昌年 孙义豪[5] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学电子与信息工程学院,上海201804 [2]国网安徽省电力公司,安徽合肥230061 [3]天津职业技术师范大学天津市信息传感与智能控制重点实验室,天津300222 [4]北京科东电力控制系统有限责任公司,北京110179 [5]国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《中国电力》2016年第5期53-58,共6页Electric Power

摘　　要：针对高压电网运行中绝缘子污闪风险概率评估的困难,提出了基于大气质量指数和微气象站信息的绝缘子附盐密度预测及污闪概率计算新方法。首先通过大气质量指数和微气象站信息分别获取区域中心位置的盐密和气象信息;然后基于该区域中心的气象信息和盐密数据通过支持向量机建立盐密预测模型;再根据其他绝缘子的气象信息,通过盐密预测模型计算出其他绝缘子的盐密值;最后通过恒定电压下绝缘子污闪概率模型计算输电线路的污闪概率,安徽电网220 k V输电线路的运行数据的计算结果验证了方法的正确性和有效性。To solve the problem of flashover risk forecasting of contaminated insulator in high power grid, this paper presents a new method of salt deposit density forecast and flashover probability calculation based on air quality index and weather conditions from micro meteorological stations. Firstly, salt density and meteorological data on section center are acquired from air quality index and infoimation from micrometeorological station. Then a salt density forecasting model is established based on salt density and meteorological data on section center with support vector machine （SVM）. According to meteorological information of other insulators, salt density is obtained through proposed forecasting model. Finally, combined with probability model of contaminated insulator under certain voltage, flashover probabilities of transmission lines are calculated. The historical data of 220 kV transmission lines in Anhui power grid verify the correctness and efficiency of proposed method.

关 键 词：污闪概率 等值附盐密度(ESDD) 大气质量指数 气象因素 绝缘子 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]