雾霾治理中的“政治性蓝天”——来自中国地方“两会”的证据  

“Political Blue Sky” in Fog and Haze Governance ——Evidence from the Local Annual “Two Sessions” in China

作　　者：石庆玲[1] 郭峰[2,3] 陈诗一[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100871 [3]上海新金融研究院,上海200002

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2016年第5期40-56,共17页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金"风险管理与经济效率分析"(批准号71525006);国家社会科学基金重大项目"雾霾治理与经济发展方式转变机制研究"(批准号14ZDB144)

摘　　要：地方政府和官员更重视环境保护还是经济增长,目前尚有争议,但在政治敏感时期,地方政府有更大的激励加大环境保护力度,营造一种暂时性的"政治性蓝天",这并不影响长期的经济增长。本文通过对中国189个城市2013年12月至2016年3月的日度空气质量指数(AQI)以及合成空气质量指数的单项污染物浓度数据进行实证研究,发现各城市"两会"期间空气质量显著改善。相对于平常时期,"两会"期间空气质量指数降低约5.7%。而且"两会"期间空气质量的改善主要发生在PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2等考核更看重、民众更敏感的污染指标上,而对于NO_2和O_3等污染指标,则影响不显著。此外,本文的实证结果还发现,部分空气污染指标的改善实际上在"两会"召开前就已经开始,但在"两会"过后空气质量迅速恶化,且恶化的程度较"两会"召开期间的改善程度更为严重,因此,"政治性蓝天"是以政治事件过后更严重的报复性污染为代价的。一系列的稳健性检验和反事实分析显示本文的结果非常稳健。It is controversial that which one should be pay more attention by the local government and officials, the environmental protection or the economic growth. Temporary measures of controlling air pollution are often taken by government in order to create ＂political blue sky＂ in the politically sensitive period since it will not affect long-term economic growth. In this paper, empirical study is taken by using daily air quality index （AQI） data and concentration data of main fog and haze components of 189 cities in China from December 2013 to March 2016. The results show that the air quality improved significantly during the ＂two sessions＂ period. The fog and haze level measured by AQI during the ＂two sessions＂ period decreases about 5.7% compared to normal times, and the air quality improvements are mainly reflected in perceivable index such as PMzs, PMt0 and SO2. As for NOz and 03, which do not affect the public perception directly, their mitigations are not significant. In addition, the empirical results also indicate that the improvement of air quality actually proceed before the ＂two sessions＂, however, the air quality deteriorate dramatically after the ＂two sessions＂, and the deterioration degree is more severe compared to the improvement degree during the ＂two sessions＂. Therefore, the ＂political blue sky＂ comes with the price of retaliatory pollution after political events. A series of robustness tests and counterfactual analysis prove that the resuhs of this paper are quite robust.

关 键 词：雾霾 “两会” 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]